2022 Australian federal election

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2022 Australian federal election
← 2019 On or before 21 May 2022 (half-Senate)
On or before 3 September 2022 (House of Representatives)
All 151 seats in the House of Representatives
76 seats are needed for a majority
40 (of the 76) seats in the Senate
Opinion polls
 
Prime Minister of Australia Scott Morrison.jpg
Australian Labor Party Leader Anthony Albanese MP (cropped - tight).jpg
Adam Bandt portrait (2020) (cropped).jpg
Leader Scott Morrison Anthony Albanese Adam Bandt
Party Liberal/National coalition Labor Greens
Leader since 24 August 2018 (2018-08-24) 30 May 2019 (2019-05-30) 4 February 2020 (2020-02-04)
Leader's seat Cook (NSW) Grayndler (NSW) Melbourne (Vic.)
Last election 77 seats, 41.44% 68 seats, 33.34% 1 seat, 10.40%
Current seats 76 seats 69 seats * post redistribution 1 seat
Seats needed Steady Increase 7 Increase75
2019 TPP 51.53% 48.47%
 
Craig Kelly MP.jpeg
Bob Katter.jpg
CA
Leader Craig Kelly Bob Katter[a] No federal leader
Party United Australia Katter's Australian Centre Alliance
Leader since 23 August 2021 (2021-08-23) 3 February 2020 (2020-02-03)
Leader's seat Hughes (NSW) Kennedy (Qld.)
Last election 0 seats, 3.43% 1 seat, 0.49% 1 seat, 0.33%
Current seats 1 seat 1 seat 1 seat
Seats needed Increase75 Increase75 Increase75
Incumbent Prime Minister

Scott Morrison
Liberal/National coalition



Coat of Arms of Australia.svg
2022 Australian federal election
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The 2022 Australian federal election will be held on or before 21 May 2022[1] to elect members of the 47th Parliament of Australia.

The incumbent Liberal/National Coalition Government, led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, is seeking to win a fourth consecutive term in office. They will be challenged by the current opposition, the Labor Party, led by Anthony Albanese. The Greens, United Australia, One Nation, other minor parties, and several independents will also contest the election.

All 151 seats in the lower house, the House of Representatives, and 40 of the 76 seats in the upper house, the Senate, will be up for election. As of 22 March 2022, a half-Senate election must be held on a Saturday between 30 April and 21 May, while an election only for the House of Representatives could be held as late as September, though splitting the election is seen as unlikely.[2] It is widely anticipated in the Australian media to occur in May 2022.[3][4]

Background[]

Previous election[]

Main article: 2019 Australian federal election
See also: Results of the 2019 Australian federal election (House of Representatives)
See also: Results of the 2019 Australian federal election (Senate)

At the previous election in May 2019, the Liberal/National Coalition, led by Scott Morrison, formed government winning 77 seats in the House of Representatives, enough for a two-seat majority, whilst Labor claimed 68 seats and remained in opposition. A further six seats were won by other parties and independents; one each to the Greens, Centre Alliance, Katter's Australian Party and the remaining three by independents forming the crossbench. In the Senate, the Coalition made modest gains in most states and increased their share of seats to 35 overall, whilst Labor remained steady on 26, the Greens likewise on 9, One Nation and Centre Alliance down to 2 each, and Jacquie Lambie and Cory Bernardi's minor parties with 1 seat each. This meant the Coalition required four additional votes to pass legislation.

Composition of parliament[]

See also: 46th Parliament of Australia § Membership changes

The 46th Parliament was inaugurated on 2 July 2019. By this time the Labor Party had elected a new leader, replacing the outgoing Bill Shorten with Anthony Albanese. Though there were several resignations and departures from members of the House and Senate, few of these changes altered the numbers on the floors of either chamber. Cory Bernardi's resignation in January 2020 allowed the Coalition to replace him with a Liberal member, increasing their share of seats in the Senate to 36. In the House of Representatives, two Coalition MPs (Llew O'Brien and Darren Chester) departed their respective party-room caucuses, though retained their membership of the Morrison Government. The government's share of seats in the House did drop however, when Craig Kelly, the member for Hughes, left the Liberal Party in August 2021 to become an independent and sit on the crossbench. This left the government with a one-seat majority (76 out of 151), though considering the position of the Speaker (who is obliged not to vote to create a majority where none is present), the government functioned from this point to the election in technical-minority status. There were two by-elections in the life of the parliament, both in 2020 in the seats of Eden-Monaro and Groom, though in both instances the by-elections were won by the incumbent party.

Events of the 46th Parliament[]

Throughout the duration of the 46th Parliament, Scott Morrison remained Prime Minister and leader of the Liberal Party; barring any challenges in 2022, he will be the first prime minister to serve a full term without facing a leadership spill since John Howard (1996–2007).[5] Deputy Prime Minister and National Party leader Michael McCormack was challenged twice by his predecessor Barnaby Joyce, unsuccessfully in February 2020 and successfully in June 2021.

Key events during the second term (and first full term) of the Morrison Government included: the Black Summer bushfires; the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic; the Parliament House sexual misconduct allegations; and the formation of the AUKUS security pact. Morrison won praise for his response to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, including launching the National Cabinet and JobKeeper programs, but struggled to manage the vaccination rollout and testing regime as new variants of SARS-CoV-2 emerged. He faced further criticism for holidaying in Hawaii during the Black Summer bushfires, being accused of lying by French President Emmanuel Macron in the aftermath of the AUKUS agreement, and lacking ambition on climate change during COP26.

The opposition Labor Party elected Anthony Albanese as party leader unopposed, 12 days after Bill Shorten lost the May 2019 election. The Albanese-led Opposition struggled to make an impact in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.[6] Albanese's "most significant policy announcement" before 2022 was a commitment to reduce emissions by 43% by 2030 under a Labor government.[7]

Australian Greens leader Richard Di Natale resigned in February 2020, replaced by the party's first and only lower house MP Adam Bandt, who was elected unopposed. Among minor parties, controversial figure Craig Kelly resigned from the Liberal Party and became the leader of Clive Palmer's United Australia Party in 2021.

Change in party registration rules[]

See also: Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 § 2021 amendments

In September 2021, legislation to amend the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 was passed and made the rules surrounding the registration of political parties stricter. The tightening of party registration rules was reportedly due to an increase of parties on the Senate ballot, which resulted in the requirement of magnifying sheets for some voters to read the ballot, and a perception that voters would be misled by names of some minor parties.[8]

The first change was the increase of membership requirements for a party from 500 to 1500.[8][9] This resulted in the federal deregistration of non-parliamentary minor parties who could not prove they had at least 1500 members, including the Christian Democratic Party and Democratic Labour Party in March 2022.[10]

The second change was that parties cannot have names that were too similar to political parties registered before them. This meant that new parties are prevented from registering a party name and/or logo "too similar to an existing party's".[8][9] As for existing registered parties, a party may also object to a similar name and/or logo used by another party, if the latter party was registered later than the former party. If the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) is satisfied with the objection, it can uphold the objection, and the later-registered party will be deregistered within a month of the upholding, if an application to change the name and/or logo is not made or has been denied.[11] This rule was used by the Liberal Party against Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and The New Liberals, with both objections upheld by the AEC. This forced The New Liberals to change its name to TNL in order to be registered, and as of 22 March 2022, the LDP has applied to change its name to the Liberty and Democracy Party.[12][13] The Labor Party also used the rule against the Democratic Labour Party and the objection was upheld by the AEC, but the latter party was eventually deregistered for not meeting the membership number requirement.[14][15]

Redistribution[]

See also: Redistribution (Australia) and Divisions of the Australian House of Representatives

The Australian Electoral Commission is required, one year after the first sitting day for a new House of Representatives, to determine the number of members to which each State and Territory is entitled. If the number in any state changes, a redistribution will be required in those states. A redistribution will be postponed if it would begin within one year of the expiration of the House of Representatives.

Demographic statistics for December 2019 released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on 18 June 2020 were used to calculate the determination. The population counts confirmed that the number of seats in the House of Representatives was to return to 150, with Victoria gaining a seat (39) and Western Australia (15) and the Northern Territory (1) losing a seat each.[16][17]

June 2020 determination (set aside)
State Seats Change
New South Wales 47 Steady
Victoria 39 Increase 1
Queensland 30 Steady
Western Australia 15 Decrease 1
South Australia 10 Steady
Tasmania 5 Steady
Australian Capital Territory 3 Steady
Northern Territory 1 Decrease 1
Total 150 Decrease 1

The abolition of the Northern Territory's second seat in the determination was controversial.[18] Labor Party senators Malarndirri McCarthy and Don Farrell put forward a private senator's bill which would guarantee the Northern Territory a minimum two seats in the House of Representatives, with the bill referred to the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters.[19] In July 2020, election analyst Antony Green proposed to the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters that the "harmonic mean method" be used to calculate the electoral representation entitlements for the territories.[20] Green also blogged on the history of representation and its applications to states and territories in light of the 2020 redistribution[21][22][23] and his advocacy proved persuasive.[19] In October 2020, deputy prime minister Michael McCormack gave an assurance that the government and opposition would combine to overrule the AEC and maintain the Northern Territory's level of representation. The mechanism by which this would be used to achieved was unclear,[24] however, with Senator Mathias Cormann stating that a two seat minimum for the territories would be legislated.[25] Mandating a minimum number of seats for the Northern Territory but not the Australian Capital Territory was seen as potentially inequitable, though the ACT's level of representation was not under threat.[19] A 2003 report had also recommended against adopting mandatory minimum entitlements to seats in the House of Representatives for either of the territories.[26]

Ultimately, the Joint Standing Committee recommended "enacting a harmonic mean for allocating seats between states and territories, with appropriate public explanation to build understanding for the reform."[19] The Parliament passed the Electoral Amendment (Territory Representation) Act on 9 December 2020, amending the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 to utilise the harmonic mean method for determining representative entitlements for territories relative to states.[27][28] Consequently, the Northern Territory will retain two seats in the House of Representatives at the next election,[27] an outcome achieved without legislating any mandatory minimum level of representation.[19]

December 2020 determination
State Seats Change
New South Wales 47 Steady
Victoria 39 Increase 1
Queensland 30 Steady
Western Australia 15 Decrease 1
South Australia 10 Steady
Tasmania 5 Steady
Australian Capital Territory 3 Steady
Northern Territory 2 Steady
Total 151 Steady

In March 2021, the AEC published its proposal for this redistribution, involving the abolition of the Division of Stirling in Western Australia,[29] the creation of the new Division of Hawke in Victoria (named for former Prime Minister Bob Hawke), and the renaming of the existing Division of Corangamite to the Division of Tucker (in honour of Margaret Tucker, "a Yorta Yorta woman, for her significant work to create a more equal and understanding society for Aboriginal people").[30][31] When the AEC published its final determinations in June 2021, the abolition of Stirling[32] and creation of Hawke were confirmed,[33] but Corangamite would not be renamed to Tucker.[34]

Voter registration[]

Enrolment of eligible voters is compulsory. Voters must notify the AEC within 8 weeks of a change of address or after turning 18. The electoral rolls are closed for new enrolments or update of details about a week after the issue of writs for election.[35]

Enrolment is optional for 16- or 17-year-olds, but they cannot vote until they turn 18,[36] and persons who have applied for Australian citizenship may also apply for provisional enrolment which takes effect on the granting of citizenship.[37]

Election date[]

See also: Electoral system of Australia § Election day
Election type Latest Saturday
Representatives only 3 September 2022
Half-senate only 21 May 2022
Representatives + half-senate 21 May 2022

Though federal elections must be conducted on a Saturday,[38] the date and type of federal election is determined by the Prime Minister – after a consideration of constitutional requirements, legal requirements, as well as political considerations – who advises the Governor-General to set the process in motion by dissolving the lower or both houses and issuing writs for election. The Constitution of Australia does not require simultaneous elections for the Senate and the House of Representatives, though simultaneous elections are held if an election for the House is called and a Senate half-election is due. When Prime Minister Robert Menzies called the November 1963 election, only the seats in the House of Representatives were vacated as it was too early to hold a half-senate election.[b] Separate House of Representatives and Senate elections were then held until the electoral timetables were brought together again at the May 1974 election.[39] According to the Parliament of Australia's website, the "conventional wisdom now is that separate Senate elections result in poor Senate results for governments and should be avoided if governments wish not to have unfriendly Senates." The most recent House-only election took place in 1972, and the most recent Senate-only election took place in 1970. Simultaneous elections are required in the case of a double dissolution election that is called under section 57 of the Australian Constitution when the Senate twice refuses to pass legislation sent to it by the House of Representatives.[40] This happened most recently in 2016 when then-Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull utilised three double dissolution triggers to call an election for the full Senate as well as for the House of Representatives.[41] However, the existence of a double dissolution trigger does not mandate that the Prime Minister must advise that an election be called.[42]

An election for the House of Representatives can be called at any time before the expiration of the three-year term of the House of Representatives[43] or up to ten days thereafter.[44] The term of the House of Representatives started on the first sitting day of the House following its election, which in the case of the 46th Parliament was 2 July 2019. This meant that the term of the House of Representatives will expire on 1 July 2022 and a House of Representatives election must be called by 11 July 2022. The Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (CEA) sets certain requirements. Up to 27 days must be allowed for nominations,[45] and the actual election can be set for a maximum of 31 days after close of nominations.[46] This will result in the latest election date for the House of Representatives to be before 7 September 2022, with the latest Saturday being 3 September 2022.

The election of senators must take place within one year before the terms expire for half-Senate elections,[47] so that the writs for a half-Senate election cannot be issued earlier than 1 July 2021. Since campaigns are for a minimum of 33 days, the earliest possible date for a simultaneous House/half-Senate election is Saturday, 7 August 2021.[48] The latest that a half-Senate election could be held must allow time for the votes to be counted and the writs to be returned before the newly elected senators take office on 1 July 2022. This took 41 days in 2019, and were returned on the last possible date available given the impending commencement of the new senators. Using this approximate time frame, the last possible date for a half-Senate election to take place is Saturday 21 May 2022.

A double dissolution (a deadlock-breaking provision to dissolve both houses of parliament) cannot take place within six months before the date of the expiry of the House of Representatives.[49] That means that any double dissolution of the 46th Parliament would have had to be granted by 1 January 2022. Allowing for the same stages indicated above, the last possible date for a double dissolution election would be 5 March 2022.[48] This can only occur if a bill that passes the House of Representatives is rejected by the Senate twice, at least three months apart.

Constitutional and legal provisions[]

The constitutional and legal provisions which impact on the choice of election dates include:[50]

  • Section 12 of the Constitution says: "The Governor of any State may cause writs to be issued for the election of Senators for that State".[51]
  • Section 13 of the Constitution provides that the election of senators shall be held in the period of twelve months before the places become vacant.[47]
  • Section 28 of the Constitution says: "Every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first sitting of the House, and no longer, but may be sooner dissolved by the Governor-General."[43] Since the 46th Parliament of Australia opened on 2 July 2019, it will expire on 1 July 2022.
  • Section 32 of the Constitution says: "The writs shall be issued within ten days from the expiry of a House of Representatives or from the proclamation of a dissolution thereof."[44] Ten days after 1 July 2022 is 11 July 2022.
  • Section 156(1) of the CEA says: "The date fixed for the nomination of the candidates shall not be less than 10 days nor more than 27 days after the date of the writ".[45] Twenty-seven days after 11 July 2022 is 7 August 2022.
  • Section 157 of the CEA says: "The date fixed for the polling shall not be less than 23 days nor more than 31 days after the date of nomination".[46] Thirty-one days after 7 August 2022 is 7 September 2022, a Wednesday.
  • Section 158 of the CEA says: "The day fixed for the polling shall be a Saturday".[38] The Saturday before 7 September 2022 is 3 September 2022. This is therefore the latest possible date for the lower house election.

Candidates[]

Main article: Candidates of the 2022 Australian federal election

Candidates for either house must be formally nominated with the Electoral Commission. The nomination for a party-endorsed candidate must be signed by the Registered Officer of a party registered under the Electoral Act. Fifty signatures of eligible voters are required for an independent candidate. A candidate can nominate for only one electorate, and must pass a number of qualifications.

A deposit of $2,000 will be required for a candidate for the House of Representatives or the Senate, which is refunded if the candidate is elected or gains at least 4% of the first preference vote.[52][53] Between 10 and 27 days must be allowed after the issue of writs before the close of nominations.[45]

Parties[]

See also: List of Australian political parties

The table below lists the current parliamentary parties of the 46th Parliament of Australia.

Name Ideology Party leader House seats[c] Senate seats[d]
Coalition[e] Liberal Party Liberal conservatism Scott Morrison
76 / 151
35 / 76
National Party Agrarianism Barnaby Joyce
Australian Labor Party Social democracy Anthony Albanese
68 / 151
26 / 76
Australian Greens Green politics Adam Bandt
1 / 151
9 / 76
Pauline Hanson's One Nation Right-wing populism Pauline Hanson
0 / 151
2 / 76
Centre Alliance Social liberalism None
1 / 151
1 / 76
Katter's Australian Party Agrarianism None[f]
1 / 151
0 / 76
United Australia Party Right-wing populism Craig Kelly
1 / 151
0 / 76
Jacqui Lambie Network Tasmanian regionalism Jacqui Lambie
0 / 151
1 / 76
Rex Patrick Team South Australian regionalism Rex Patrick
0 / 151
1 / 76
Independents[g] – –
3 / 151
1 / 76

Retiring and disendorsed members[]

The following Members of Parliament (MPs) and Senators are not contesting the election.

Labor[]

  • Sharon Bird MP (Cunningham, NSW) – announced retirement on 19 November 2021[54]
  • Anthony Byrne MP (Holt, Vic) – announced retirement on 3 March 2022[55]
  • Joel Fitzgibbon MP (Hunter, NSW) – announced retirement on 12 September 2021[56]
  • Chris Hayes MP (Fowler, NSW) – announced retirement on 24 March 2021[57]
  • Julie Owens MP (Parramatta, NSW) – announced retirement on 28 October 2021[58]
  • Warren Snowdon MP (Lingiari, NT) – announced retirement on 10 December 2020[59]

Liberal[]

  • John Alexander MP (Bennelong, NSW) – announced retirement on 12 November 2021[60]
  • Kevin Andrews MP (Menzies, Vic) – lost preselection on 31 January 2021[61]
  • Nicolle Flint MP (Boothby, SA) – announced retirement on 26 February 2021[62]
  • Greg Hunt MP (Flinders, Vic) – announced retirement on 2 December 2021[63]
  • Steve Irons MP (Swan, WA) – announced retirement on 24 September 2021[64]
  • Andrew Laming MP (Bowman, Qld) – announced retirement on 28 March 2021,[65] disendorsed on 12 April 2021 after refusal to withdraw preselection nomination[66]
  • Christian Porter MP (Pearce, WA) – announced retirement on 1 December 2021[67]
  • Tony Smith MP (Casey, Vic) – announced retirement on 14 July 2021[68]

Nationals[]

  • George Christensen MP (Dawson, Qld) – announced retirement on 22 April 2021[69]
  • Damian Drum MP (Nicholls, Vic) – announced retirement on 3 December 2021[70][71]
  • Ken O'Dowd MP (Flynn, Qld) – announced retirement on 5 January 2021[72]
  • Senator Sam McMahon (NT) – lost preselection on 26 June 2021[73]

Election pendulum (House of Representatives)[]

This Mackerras pendulum includes new notional margin estimates in Victoria and Western Australia due to boundary redistributions.[74] Members in italics have declared they will not contest the election, or have lost their party's preselection.

Government seats (75)
Marginal
Bass Tas Bridget Archer LIB 0.4
Chisholm Vic Gladys Liu LIB 0.5
Wentworth NSW Dave Sharma LIB vs. IND 1.3
Boothby SA Nicolle Flint LIB 1.4
Braddon Tas Gavin Pearce LIB 3.1
Reid NSW Fiona Martin LIB 3.2
Longman Qld Terry Young LNP 3.3
Swan WA Steve Irons LIB 3.3
Higgins Vic Katie Allen LIB 3.7
Leichhardt Qld Warren Entsch LNP 4.2
Robertson NSW Lucy Wicks LIB 4.2
Casey Vic Tony Smith LIB 4.6
Dickson Qld Peter Dutton LNP 4.6
Deakin Vic Michael Sukkar LIB 4.7
Brisbane Qld Trevor Evans LNP 4.9
Lindsay NSW Melissa McIntosh LIB 5.0
Pearce WA Christian Porter LIB 5.2
La Trobe Vic Jason Wood LIB 5.5
Flinders Vic Greg Hunt LIB 5.6
Kooyong Vic Josh Frydenberg LIB vs. GRN 5.6
Hasluck WA Ken Wyatt LIB 5.8
Fairly safe
Ryan Qld Julian Simmonds LNP 6.0
Banks NSW David Coleman LIB 6.3
Cowper NSW Pat Conaghan NAT vs. IND 6.8
Sturt SA James Stevens LIB 6.9
Monash Vic Russell Broadbent LIB 6.9
Bennelong NSW John Alexander LIB 6.9
Menzies Vic Kevin Andrews LIB 7.0
Bonner Qld Ross Vasta LNP 7.4
Goldstein Vic Tim Wilson LIB 7.8
Herbert Qld Phillip Thompson LIB 8.4
Petrie Qld Luke Howarth LNP 8.4
Forde Qld Bert Van Manen LNP 8.6
Flynn Qld Ken O'Dowd LNP 8.7
North Sydney NSW Trent Zimmerman LIB 9.3
Page NSW Kevin Hogan NAT 9.4
Tangney WA Ben Morton LIB 9.5
Safe
Aston Vic Alan Tudge LIB 10.1
Wannon Vic Dan Tehan LIB 10.2
Bowman Qld Andrew Laming LNP 10.2
Farrer NSW Sussan Ley LIB vs. IND 10.9
Canning WA Andrew Hastie LIB 11.6
Moore WA Ian Goodenough LIB 11.6
McPherson Qld Karen Andrews LNP 12.2
Capricornia Qld Michelle Landry LNP 12.4
Fisher Qld Andrew Wallace LNP 12.7
Hume NSW Angus Taylor LIB 13.0
Wide Bay Qld Llew O'Brien LNP 13.1
Mackellar NSW Jason Falinski LIB 13.2
Calare NSW Andrew Gee NAT 13.3
Grey SA Rowan Ramsey LIB 13.3
Fairfax Qld Ted O'Brien LNP 13.4
Durack WA Melissa Price LIB 13.5
Curtin WA Celia Hammond LIB 14.0
Fadden Qld Stuart Robert LNP 14.2
New England NSW Barnaby Joyce NAT vs. IND 14.4
Hinkler Qld Keith Pitt LNP 14.5
Dawson Qld George Christensen LNP 14.6
Forrest WA Nola Marino LIB 14.6
Wright Qld Scott Buchholz LNP 14.6
Lyne NSW David Gillespie NAT 15.2
Moncrieff Qld Angie Bell LNP 15.4
O'Connor WA Rick Wilson LIB 15.4
Berowra NSW Julian Leeser LIB 15.6
Mallee Vic Anne Webster NAT 15.7
Bradfield NSW Paul Fletcher LIB 16.6
Gippsland Vic Darren Chester NAT 16.7
Parkes NSW Mark Coulton NAT 16.9
Groom Qld Garth Hamilton LNP (b/e) 17.2
Mitchell NSW Alex Hawke LIB 18.6
Barker SA Tony Pasin LIB 18.9
Cook NSW Scott Morrison LIB 19.0
Riverina NSW Michael McCormack NAT 19.5
Nicholls Vic Damian Drum NAT 20.0
Maranoa Qld David Littleproud LNP vs PHON 22.5
Opposition seats (69)
Marginal
Macquarie NSW Susan Templeman ALP 0.2
Eden-Monaro NSW Kristy McBain ALP (b/e) 0.4
Lilley Qld Anika Wells ALP 0.6
Cowan WA Anne Aly ALP 0.9
Corangamite Vic Libby Coker ALP 1.0
Blair Qld Shayne Neumann ALP 1.2
Dobell NSW Emma McBride ALP 1.5
Moreton Qld Graham Perrett ALP 1.9
Gilmore NSW Fiona Phillips ALP 2.6
Dunkley Vic Peta Murphy ALP 2.7
Greenway NSW Michelle Rowland ALP 2.8
Griffith Qld Terri Butler ALP 2.9
Hunter NSW Joel Fitzgibbon ALP 3.0
Solomon NT Luke Gosling ALP 3.1
Perth WA Patrick Gorman ALP 3.2
Parramatta NSW Julie Owens ALP 3.5
Richmond NSW Justine Elliot ALP 4.1
Shortland NSW Pat Conroy ALP 4.4
Paterson NSW Meryl Swanson ALP 5.0
Lyons Tas Brian Mitchell ALP 5.2
McEwen Vic Rob Mitchell ALP 5.3
Burt WA Matt Keogh ALP 5.4
Lingiari NT Warren Snowdon ALP 5.5
Werriwa NSW Anne Stanley ALP 5.5
Jagajaga Vic Kate Thwaites ALP 5.9
Fairly safe
Macnamara Vic Josh Burns ALP 6.1
Isaacs Vic Mark Dreyfus ALP 6.4
Oxley Qld Milton Dick ALP 6.4
Rankin Qld Jim Chalmers ALP 6.4
Hindmarsh SA Mark Butler ALP 6.5
McMahon NSW Chris Bowen ALP 6.6
Brand WA Madeleine King ALP 6.7
Fremantle WA Josh Wilson ALP 6.9
Bruce Vic Julian Hill ALP 7.3
Bean ACT David Smith ALP 7.5
Adelaide SA Steve Georganas ALP 8.2
Wills Vic Peter Khalil ALP vs. GRN 8.2
Macarthur NSW Mike Freelander ALP 8.4
Kingsford Smith NSW Matt Thistlethwaite ALP 8.8
Holt Vic Anthony Byrne ALP 8.9
Bendigo Vic Lisa Chesters ALP 8.9
Barton NSW Linda Burney ALP 9.4
Makin SA Tony Zappia ALP 9.7
Safe
Hawke Vic new seat ALP 10.2
Ballarat Vic Catherine King ALP 10.3
Maribyrnong Vic Bill Shorten ALP 10.3
Corio Vic Richard Marles ALP 10.3
Fenner ACT Andrew Leigh ALP 10.6
Whitlam NSW Stephen Jones ALP 10.9
Hotham Vic Clare O'Neil ALP 11.2
Kingston SA Amanda Rishworth ALP 11.9
Franklin Tas Julie Collins ALP 12.2
Chifley NSW Ed Husic ALP 12.4
Lalor Vic Joanne Ryan ALP 12.4
Gellibrand Vic Tim Watts ALP 13.0
Cunningham NSW Sharon Bird ALP 13.4
Watson NSW Tony Burke ALP 13.5
Newcastle NSW Sharon Claydon ALP 13.8
Fowler NSW Chris Hayes ALP 14.0
Spence SA Nick Champion ALP 14.1
Gorton Vic Brendan O'Connor ALP 14.3
Cooper Vic Ged Kearney ALP vs. GRN 14.6
Blaxland NSW Jason Clare ALP 14.7
Grayndler NSW Anthony Albanese ALP vs. GRN 16.3
Canberra ACT Alicia Payne ALP 17.1
Fraser Vic Daniel Mulino ALP 18.1
Sydney NSW Tanya Plibersek ALP 18.7
Calwell Vic Maria Vamvakinou ALP 19.6
Scullin Vic Andrew Giles ALP 21.7
Crossbench seats (7)
Indi Vic Helen Haines IND vs. LIB 1.4
Mayo SA Rebekha Sharkie CA vs. LIB 5.1
Warringah NSW Zali Steggall IND vs. LIB 7.2
Hughes NSW Craig Kelly LIB 9.9
Kennedy Qld Bob Katter KAP vs. LNP 13.3
Melbourne Vic Adam Bandt GRN vs. LIB 21.8
Clark Tas Andrew Wilkie IND vs. ALP 22.1

Opinion polling[]

This section is an excerpt from Opinion polling for the 2022 Australian federal election § Graphical summary.[]
Two-party-preferred vote.
Primary vote.
Aggregate data of voting intention from all opinion polling since the last election. Local regression trends for each party are shown as solid lines.

See also[]

  • List of political parties in Australia

Notes[]

  1. ^ Robbie Katter is party leader, but is not contesting the federal election or a member of the Commonwealth parliament. Robbie Katter sits as an MP in the Parliament of Queensland for Traeger.
  2. ^ Under section 13 of the Australian Constitution, a half-senate election must be held within the year prior to the expiry of those Senators' terms. The Senators elected in the 1958 election began their terms on 1 July 1959 and would serve until 30 June 1965, thus a half-senate election for those positions could not be held prior to 1 July 1964.
  3. ^ Since the 2019 election, the Liberal Party lost one seat when Craig Kelly resigned from the party in February 2021, and the United Australia Party gained one seat when Kelly joined the party in August 2021.
  4. ^ Since the 2019 election, the National Party lost one seat when Sam McMahon resigned from the Country Liberal Party in January 2022 to sit in the crossbench
  5. ^ The Coalition formally comprises the Liberal Party and National Party. Federal parliamentary members of the Liberal National Party of Queensland and Country Liberal Party (Northern Territory) sit in the party room of either the Liberal or National parties, according to the individual members' preference or internal party arrangements.
  6. ^ Robbie Katter is party leader, but is not contesting the federal election.
  7. ^ Andrew Wilkie, Helen Haines, Zali Steggall, Senator Sam McMahon

References[]

  1. ^ Green, Antony (29 June 2021). "When can the Next Federal Election be Held?". Antony Green's Election Blog.
  2. ^ "When is the 2022 Australian federal election?".
  3. ^ Tillett, Andrew (18 January 2022). "May 14 firming as the federal election date". The Australian Financial Review.
  4. ^ Crowe, David (18 January 2022). "Election race tightens after Morrison takes a summer battering". The Sydney Morning Herald.
  5. ^ Crowe, David (7 October 2021). "Careful, they might hear you: Why Scott Morrison's ministry is so quiet". The Sydney Morning Herald.
  6. ^ Bongiorno, Frank (7 April 2021). "With the government on the ropes, Anthony Albanese has a fighting chance". The Conservation.
  7. ^ Murphy, Katharine (3 December 2021). "Anthony Albanese commits Labor to emissions reduction target of 43% by 2030". TheGuardian.com.
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