2022 Victorian state election

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2022 Victorian state election
← 2018 26 November 2022 2026 →
All 88 seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly
All 40 seats in the Victorian Legislative Council
45 Assembly seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  Daniel Andrews 2018.jpg Michael O'Brien cropped.png Samantha Ratnam (cropped).jpg
Leader Daniel Andrews Michael O'Brien Samantha Ratnam
Party Labor Liberal/National coalition Greens
Leader since 3 December 2010 6 December 2018 12 October 2017
Leader's seat Mulgrave Malvern MLC for Northern
Metropolitan
Last election 55 seats 27 seats 3 seats
Current seats 55 seats 27 seats 3 seats
Seats needed Steady Increase 18 Increase 42
Incumbent Premier

Daniel Andrews
Labor



The next Victorian state election is scheduled to be held on 26 November 2022 to elect the 60th Parliament of Victoria. All 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly (lower house) and all 40 seats in the Legislative Council (upper house) will be up for election, presuming there are no new electorates added in a redistribution.

Background[]

2018 election[]

The second-term incumbent Labor government, currently led by Premier Daniel Andrews, won a decisive victory at the 2018 state election, taking 55 seats–Victorian Labor's third-best seat count ever.

The Labor government will attempt to win a third four-year term, something only John Cain Jr and Steve Bracks have previously achieved. They will be challenged by the Liberal/National Coalition opposition, currently led by Opposition Leader Michael O'Brien and Peter Walsh. Also expected to contest the election is minor party the Greens, currently led by Samantha Ratnam.

Electoral system[]

Victoria has compulsory voting and uses instant-runoff voting in single-member seats for the Legislative Assembly, and single transferable vote in multi-member seats for the proportionally represented Legislative Council. The Legislative Council presently has 40 members serving four-year terms, elected from eight electoral regions each with five members. With each region electing 5 members, the quota in each region for election, after distribution of preferences, is 16.7% (one-sixth). The election will be conducted by the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC).

Redistribution[]

The Electoral Boundaries Commission must conduct a redistribution if there has been two general elections since the last redistribution. With the last redistribution occurring prior to the 2014 election, a new one will be concluded in 2021, prior to the 2022 election. According to commentators, Victoria's "booming population" will see new districts created in outer-suburban and inner-city areas, at the expense of middle-suburban areas.[1] At the 2018 election the voter enrollment in individual districts ranged from 61,814 in Cranbourne[2] to 38,937 in Mount Waverley.[3]

On 30 June 2021, the Electoral Boundaries Commission of the Victorian Electoral Commission released draft boundaries for the proposed redistribution by the 2022 election for the Victorian Legislative Assembly. The draft boundaries see the creation of new electorates and the abolition of current ones.

Proposed Changes to Electorates of the Victorian Legislative Assembly
Current Electorates Proposed Electorates
Altona
Burwood
Ferntree Gully abolished
Forest Hill Glen Waverley
Mount Waverley
Gembrook Berwick
Pakenham
Keysborough abolished
Mill Park
new seat
Wendouree
Yuroke

Date[]

Pursuant to the Electoral Act 2002, Victoria has had fixed terms, with all elections since the 2006 election held every four years on the last Saturday of November. This means that the date for the next election is currently set at 26 November 2022. This would change only if Parliament were dissolved unexpectedly beforehand.[4][5]

Electoral pendulum[]

The state is undergoing a periodic review of its electoral boundaries which should be completed by October 2021 and there may be changes in seats and margins.[6]

LABOR SEATS
Seat Member Party Margin
Marginal
Bayswater Jackson Taylor ALP 0.3%
Hawthorn John Kennedy ALP 0.4%
Nepean Chris Brayne ALP 0.9%
Northcote Kat Theophanous ALP 1.7% v GRN
Mount Waverley Matt Fregon ALP 1.8%
Box Hill Paul Hamer ALP 2.1%
Bass Jordan Crugnale ALP 2.3%
Ringwood Dustin Halse ALP 2.8%
Burwood Will Fowles ALP 3.3%
Melton Steve McGhie ALP 4.2%
South Barwon Darren Cheeseman ALP 4.6%
Richmond Richard Wynne ALP 5.4% v GRN
Fairly safe
Geelong Christine Couzens ALP 6.2% v IND
Narre Warren South Gary Maas ALP 6.9%
Pascoe Vale Lizzie Blandthorn ALP 8.5% v IND
Monbulk James Merlino ALP 8.6%
Werribee Tim Pallas ALP 8.7% v IND
Eltham Vicki Ward ALP 9.0%
Frankston Paul Edbrooke ALP 9.7%
Narre Warren North Luke Donnellan ALP 9.7%
Safe
Wendouree Juliana Addison ALP 10.2%
Cranbourne Pauline Richards ALP 10.9%
Bellarine Lisa Neville ALP 11.4%
Bentleigh Nick Staikos ALP 11.9%
Carrum Sonya Kilkenny ALP 11.9%
Bendigo East Jacinta Allan ALP 12.1%
Buninyong Michaela Settle ALP 12.2%
Ivanhoe Anthony Carbines ALP 12.3%
Niddrie Ben Carroll ALP 12.5%
Mulgrave Daniel Andrews ALP 12.7%
Mordialloc Tim Richardson ALP 12.9%
Albert Park Martin Foley ALP 13.1%
Macedon Mary-Anne Thomas ALP 13.1%
Sunbury Josh Bull ALP 14.3%
Altona Jill Hennessy ALP 14.5%
Keysborough Martin Pakula ALP 14.8%
Oakleigh Steve Dimopoulos ALP 15.7%
Essendon Danny Pearson ALP 15.8%
Yan Yean Danielle Green ALP 17.0%
Bundoora Colin Brooks ALP 17.4%
Clarinda Meng Heang Tak ALP 17.4%
Sydenham Natalie Hutchins ALP 17.8%
Tarneit Sarah Connolly ALP 18.0%
Bendigo West Maree Edwards ALP 18.5%
Lara John Eren ALP 19.1%
Very safe
Yuroke Ros Spence ALP 20.2%
Preston Robin Scott ALP 20.7% v GRN
St Albans Natalie Suleyman ALP 21.5%
Williamstown Melissa Horne ALP 22.0%
Dandenong Gabrielle Williams ALP 23.9%
Mill Park Lily D'Ambrosio ALP 24.9%
Kororoit Marlene Kairouz ALP 25.6%
Thomastown Bronwyn Halfpenny ALP 27.1%
Footscray Katie Hall ALP 28.1%
Broadmeadows Frank McGuire ALP 30.2%
COALITION SEATS
Seat Member Party Margin
Marginal
Ripon Louise Staley LIB 0.02%
Caulfield David Southwick LIB 0.2%
Sandringham Brad Rowswell LIB 0.6%
Gembrook Brad Battin LIB 0.7%
Hastings Neale Burgess LIB 1.0%
Brighton James Newbury LIB 1.1%
Forest Hill Neil Angus LIB 1.1%
Ferntree Gully Nick Wakeling LIB 1.6%
Croydon David Hodgett LIB 2.1%
South-West Coast Roma Britnell LIB 2.3%
Eildon Cindy McLeish LIB 2.4%
Benambra Bill Tilley LIB 2.4% v IND
Evelyn Bridget Vallence LIB 2.6%
Warrandyte Ryan Smith LIB 3.8%
Kew Tim Smith LIB 4.7%
Mornington David Morris LIB 5.0%
Polwarth Richard Riordan LIB 5.4%
Rowville Kim Wells LIB 5.6%
Bulleen Matthew Guy LIB 5.7%
Fairly safe
Malvern Michael O'Brien LIB 6.1%
Narracan Gary Blackwood LIB 7.2%
Safe
Ovens Valley Tim McCurdy NAT 12.6%
Gippsland South Danny O'Brien NAT 15.3%
Euroa Steph Ryan NAT 15.4%
Gippsland East Tim Bull NAT 17.5%
Very safe
Lowan Emma Kealy NAT 23.4%
Murray Plains Peter Walsh NAT 23.9%
CROSSBENCH SEATS
Mildura Ali Cupper IND 0.3% v NAT
Brunswick Tim Read GRN 0.5% v ALP
Melbourne Ellen Sandell GRN 1.3% v ALP
Morwell Russell Northe IND 1.8% v ALP
Shepparton Suzanna Sheed IND 5.3% v LIB
Prahran Sam Hibbins GRN 7.4% v LIB

Registered parties[]

See also: List of political parties in Australia

As of 19 June 2020, there were 15 parties registered with the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC):[7]

Polling[]

Graphical summary[]

Primary vote
Two-party-preferred

Voting intention[]

Polling that is conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of over 1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±2.8 percentage points.

Legislative Assembly (lower house) polling
Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote
ALP LIB NAT GRN OTH ALP L/NP
22 August 2021 Resolve Strategic[8] 40% 35%* 10% 15% N/A
12–15 June 2021 RedBridge[9][10] 37% 38% 3% 12% 10% 52.4% 47.6%
13 June 2021 Resolve Strategic[8][a] 37% 36%* 9% 17% N/A
9–10 November 2020 Roy Morgan[11] 45% 30.5% 4% 11% 9.5% 58.5% 41.5%
29 Oct–4 Nov 2020 YouGov[12] 44% 40%* 11% 5% 55% 45%
12–13 October 2020 Roy Morgan[13] 40% 36% 4% 9% 6% 51.5% 48.5%
28–29 September 2020 Roy Morgan[14] 39% 37% 2.5% 10% 6% 51.5% 48.5%
15–17 September 2020 Roy Morgan[15] 37% 35% 3.5% 12% 8.5% 51.5% 48.5%
6 December 2018 Michael O'Brien becomes Liberal leader and leader of the opposition
24 November 2018 Election 42.9% 30.4% 4.8% 10.7% 11.2% 57.3% 42.7%
23 November 2018 Newspoll[16] 41% 40%* 11% 8% 53.5% 46.5%
* Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here [1]

Preferred Premier and satisfaction[]

Graph of opinion polls conducted for preferred premier
Better Premier and satisfaction polling*
Date Firm Better Premier Andrews O'Brien
Andrews O'Brien Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
22 August 2021 Resolve Strategic[8] 50% 24% N/A
12–15 June 2021 RedBridge[17][10] 42.4% 23.1% 49.7% 46.5% 36.1% 44%
13 June 2021 Resolve Strategic[8] 49% 23% 42% 32% 14% 22%
11–16 November 2020 Essential[18] not asked 65% 28% not asked
9–10 November 2020 Roy Morgan[11] not asked 71% 29% not asked
29 Oct–4 Nov 2020 YouGov[12] not asked 65% 32% 26% 53%
28 Oct–2 Nov 2020 Essential[19] not asked 61% 33% not asked
19–21 October 2020 Ipsos[20] 53% 18% 52% 33% 15% 39%
14–19 October 2020 Essential[21] not asked 54% 40% not asked
12–13 October 2020 Roy Morgan[22] not asked 59% 41% not asked
29–30 September 2020 Roy Morgan[23] not asked 61% 39% not asked
16–19 September 2020 Newspoll[24] not asked 62% 35% not asked
8–9 September 2020 Roy Morgan[25] not asked 70% 30% not asked
15–18 July 2020 Newspoll[26] not asked 57% 37% not asked
24–28 June 2020 Newspoll[27] not asked 67% 27% not asked
21–26 April 2020 Newspoll[28] not asked 75% 17% not asked
6 December 2018 O'Brien replaces Guy Andrews Guy Andrews Guy
24 November 2018 Election – – – – – –
24–28 October 2018 Newspoll[29] 45% 29% 45% 40% 31% 46%
22–24 October 2018 YouGov not asked 44% 35% 24% 42%
7 October 2018 ReachTEL[30] 51.3% 48.7% not asked
11–13 September 2018 YouGov[31] not asked 40% 42% 25% 44%
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
† Participants were forced to choose.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here [2]

Notes[]

  1. ^ Resolve Strategic does not calculate TPP vote.

References[]

  1. ^ "Final reckoning: Nine views of Victoria's election". 12 December 2018.
  2. ^ "State Election 2018: Cranbourne District results summary - Victorian Electoral Commission". www.vec.vic.gov.au. Retrieved 25 December 2018.
  3. ^ "State Election 2018: Mount Waverley District results summary - Victorian Electoral Commission". www.vec.vic.gov.au. Retrieved 25 December 2018.
  4. ^ Table Office (24 May 2010). "Information Sheet 16 – A New Electoral System for Victoria's Legislative Council". Department of the Legislative Council. Parliament of Victoria. Retrieved 9 February 2015.
  5. ^ "Fact Sheet G3: Elections" (PDF). Parliament of Victoria. December 2010. Retrieved 9 February 2015.
  6. ^ State boundary reviews Victorian Electoral Commission
  7. ^ "Currently registered parties - Victorian Electoral Commission". www.vec.vic.gov.au. Retrieved 19 June 2020.
  8. ^ Jump up to: a b c d "VIC primary vote by Demographics". Resolve Political Monitor. Retrieved 17 June 2021.
  9. ^ Deery, Shannon. "Poll reveals Labor's support is falling in traditional heartland". Herald Sun. Retrieved 21 June 2021.
  10. ^ Jump up to: a b Deery, Shannon (21 June 2021). "Cracks Appear in Red Wall". Herald Sun. pp. 6–7.
  11. ^ Jump up to: a b "Victorian ALP (58.5%) streaks ahead of L-NP (41.5%). Premier Daniel Andrews approval jumps 12% to 71%". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 12 November 2020.
  12. ^ Jump up to: a b "Majority of Victorians think it's fair to blame Daniel Andrews for the failed hotel quarantine: poll". Herald Sun.
  13. ^ "Victorian ALP still ahead of the L-NP at 51.5% Vs. 48.5%; Premier Andrews' approval down 2% to 59%". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 16 October 2020.
  14. ^ "Victorians now against Stage 4 Covid Restrictions". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 1 October 2020.
  15. ^ "Victorian ALP Government support now 51.5% would win a close election with L-NP on 48.5%". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 20 September 2020.
  16. ^ Ferguson, John (24 November 2018). "Victorian election: Labor on track for poll victory, Newspoll finds". The Australian. Retrieved 24 November 2018.
  17. ^ Deery, Shannon. "Poll reveals Labor's support is falling in traditional heartland". Herald Sun. Retrieved 21 June 2021.
  18. ^ "Performance of State Premiers". Essential Vision. Essential Research. 17 November 2020. Retrieved 17 November 2020.
  19. ^ "Performance of State Premiers". Essential Vision. Essential Research. 3 November 2020. Retrieved 3 November 2020.
  20. ^ Topsfield, Jewel (26 October 2020). "Andrews support strong, but Liberal leader floundering: poll". The Age. Retrieved 26 October 2020.
  21. ^ "Performance of State Premiers". Essential Vision. 19 October 2020. Retrieved 20 October 2020.
  22. ^ "Victorian ALP still ahead of the L-NP at 51.5% Vs. 48.5%; Premier Andrews' approval down 2% to 59%". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 16 October 2020.
  23. ^ "Victorians now against Stage 4 Covid Restrictions". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 1 October 2020.
  24. ^ "Two-thirds of Victorian voters back Daniel Andrews despite controversial management of COVID-19 crisis". The Australian. News Corp Australia. 21 September 2020.
  25. ^ "70% of Victorians approve of the way Premier Andrews is handling his job, but 76% say the Victorian Government should compensate small business". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 12 September 2020.
  26. ^ "Andrews caught in voters' crossfire". The Australian. News Corp Australia. 21 July 2020.
  27. ^ "Newspoll: Premiers sky high as Daniel Andrews' halo slips". The Australian. News Corp Australia. 29 June 2020.
  28. ^ Benson, Simon (28 April 2020). "Premiers riding a wave of popularity". The Australian. News Corp Australia.
  29. ^ Ferguson, John. "Newspoll: federal leadership turmoil hits Victorian Liberals' campaign". The Australian.
  30. ^ "ReachTEL Poll: Andrews edges clear of Guy as State Election draws near". The Age. 7 October 2018.
  31. ^ "Two-thirds think Melbourne's population is growing too fast". MacroBusiness. 17 September 2018.

External links[]

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