2016 United States presidential election in New Mexico
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| Elections in New Mexico |
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 Federal elections |
 State elections |
 Albuquerque |
The 2016 United States presidential election in New Mexico was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Mexico voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
Clinton won the state of New Mexico with a plurality, by a margin of 8.2 percentage points. The state had long been considered leaning Democratic, or a state Clinton would win, due to its large population of Hispanic/Latino and Native American voters. This is the third time since 1912, when New Mexico attained statehood, that the state voted for a candidate who did not win the Electoral College, after 1976 and 2000. However, in this election and in 2000, New Mexico voted for the candidate who received the most votes. Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson achieved 9% in his home state, his best performance of any state and the Libertarian Party's best performance in any single state since Ed Clark received 11.66% of the vote in Alaska in 1980.[3] Johnson's result was also the best result for a third party or independent candidate in New Mexico since Ross Perot's campaign in 1992. As of 2020, this is the last time that New Mexico voted to the left of its northern neighbor Colorado.
Primary elections[]
Democratic primary[]
Four candidates appeared on the Democratic Party (United States) presidential primary ballot:
- Bernie Sanders
- Hillary Clinton
- Rocky De La Fuente
- Martin O'Malley (withdrawn)
| New Mexico Democratic primary, June 7, 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Popular vote | Estimated delegates | |||
| Count | Percentage | Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |
| Hillary Clinton | 111,334 | 51.53% | 18 | 9 | 27 |
| Bernie Sanders | 104,741 | 48.47% | 16 | 0 | 16 |
| Uncommitted | N/A | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Total | 216,075 | 100% | 34 | 9 | 43 |
| Source: The Green Papers, New Mexico State Board of Elections, New Mexico Democratic Delegates Allocation | |||||
Republican primary[]
Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:
- Jeb Bush (withdrawn)
- Ben Carson (withdrawn)
- Chris Christie (withdrawn)
- Ted Cruz (withdrawn)
- Carly Fiorina (withdrawn)
- Jim Gilmore (withdrawn)
- Mike Huckabee (withdrawn)
- John Kasich (withdrawn)
- Rand Paul (withdrawn)
- Marco Rubio (withdrawn)
- Rick Santorum (withdrawn)
- Donald Trump
Donald Trump, the only candidate with an active campaign, won every delegate from New Mexico.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 73,908 | 70.64% | 24 | 0 | 24 |
| Ted Cruz (withdrawn) | 13,925 | 13.31% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Kasich (withdrawn) | 7,925 | 7.57% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Carson (withdrawn) | 3,830 | 3.66% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeb Bush (withdrawn) | 3,531 | 3.37% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) | 1,508 | 1.44% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unprojected delegates: | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total: | 104,627 | 100.00% | 24 | 0 | 24 |
| Source: The Green Papers | |||||
Polling[]
Albuquerque Journal October 2, 2016[4]
- Clinton 35%
- Trump 31%
- Johnson 24%
- Stein 2%
Albuquerque Journal November 5, 2016[5]
- Clinton 45%
- Trump 40%
- Johnson 11%
- Stein 3%
Clinton won every pre-election poll conducted. Her margin of victory varied from 2 points to 13 points. The last poll showed Clinton ahead of Trump 46% to 44%, while the average of the last three had Clinton leading Trump 45% to 40%, with many undecided voters who probably considered Gary Johnson, the state's former governor.[6] Johnson even reached 24% in one poll conducted by the Albuquerque Journal.
General election[]
Predictions[]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Times[7] | Safe D | November 6, 2016 |
| CNN[8] | Safe D | November 4, 2016 |
| Cook Political Report[9] | Likely D | November 7, 2016 |
| Electoral-vote.com[10] | Lean D | November 8, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[11] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] | Likely D | November 7, 2016 |
| RealClearPolitics[13] | Tossup | November 8, 2016 |
| Fox News[14] | Lean D | November 7, 2016 |
Results[]
Statewide results[]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic |
|
385,234 | 48.26 | ||
| Republican |
|
319,667 | 40.04 | ||
| Libertarian |
|
74,541 | 9.34 | ||
| Green |
|
9,879 | 1.24 | ||
| Better for America |
|
5,825 | 0.73 | ||
| Constitution |
|
1,514 | 0.19 | ||
| Socialism and Liberation |
|
1,184 | 0.15 | ||
| American Delta |
|
475 | 0.06 | ||
| Total votes | 798,319 | 100% | |||
| Democratic win | |||||
Results by county[]
Official results from New Mexico Secretary of State.[15]
| 2016 United States presidential election in New Mexico by county | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | McMullin | Castle | La Riva | De La Fuente |
Total | ||||||||
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | |
| Bernalillo | 143,417 | 52.22% | 94,698 | 34.48% | 29,682 | 10.81% | 3,614 | 1.32% | 2,181 | 0.79% | 474 | 0.17% | 445 | 0.16% | 151 | 0.05% | 274,662 |
| Catron | 427 | 20.84% | 1,464 | 71.45% | 111 | 5.42% | 23 | 1.12% | 11 | 0.54% | 12 | 0.59% | 0 | 0.00% | 1 | 0.05% | 2,049 |
| Chaves | 5,534 | 27.30% | 12,872 | 63.50% | 1,609 | 7.94% | 86 | 0.42% | 102 | 0.50% | 32 | 0.16% | 22 | 0.11% | 14 | 0.07% | 20,271 |
| Cibola | 3,741 | 46.40% | 3,195 | 39.63% | 970 | 12.03% | 73 | 0.91% | 43 | 0.53% | 16 | 0.20% | 20 | 0.25% | 5 | 0.06% | 8,063 |
| Colfax | 2,129 | 39.93% | 2,585 | 48.48% | 527 | 9.88% | 37 | 0.69% | 31 | 0.58% | 12 | 0.23% | 5 | 0.09% | 6 | 0.11% | 5,332 |
| Curry | 3,121 | 23.34% | 9,035 | 67.58% | 973 | 7.28% | 74 | 0.55% | 112 | 0.84% | 39 | 0.29% | 10 | 0.07% | 6 | 0.04% | 13,370 |
| De Baca | 193 | 21.21% | 620 | 68.13% | 89 | 9.78% | 6 | 0.66% | 2 | 0.22% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 910 |
| Doña Ana | 37,947 | 53.71% | 25,374 | 35.92% | 5,471 | 7.74% | 953 | 1.35% | 566 | 0.80% | 157 | 0.22% | 115 | 0.16% | 65 | 0.09% | 70,648 |
| Eddy | 5,033 | 25.59% | 13,147 | 66.85% | 1,275 | 6.48% | 84 | 0.43% | 83 | 0.42% | 27 | 0.14% | 12 | 0.06% | 6 | 0.03% | 19,667 |
| Grant | 6,276 | 48.99% | 5,288 | 41.28% | 899 | 7.02% | 218 | 1.70% | 80 | 0.62% | 25 | 0.20% | 19 | 0.15% | 6 | 0.05% | 12,811 |
| Guadalupe | 970 | 53.09% | 595 | 32.57% | 238 | 13.03% | 18 | 0.99% | 5 | 0.27% | 1 | 0.05% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 1,827 |
| Harding | 156 | 29.60% | 311 | 59.01% | 55 | 10.44% | 3 | 0.57% | 0 | 0.00% | 2 | 0.38% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 527 |
| Hidalgo | 784 | 41.88% | 910 | 48.61% | 137 | 7.32% | 6 | 0.32% | 27 | 1.44% | 2 | 0.11% | 3 | 0.16% | 3 | 0.16% | 1,872 |
| Lea | 3,930 | 22.19% | 12,495 | 70.55% | 1,098 | 6.20% | 56 | 0.32% | 80 | 0.45% | 26 | 0.15% | 17 | 0.10% | 10 | 0.06% | 17,712 |
| Lincoln | 2,331 | 26.19% | 5,896 | 66.23% | 560 | 6.29% | 59 | 0.66% | 36 | 0.40% | 9 | 0.10% | 9 | 0.10% | 2 | 0.02% | 8,902 |
| Los Alamos | 5,562 | 51.10% | 3,359 | 30.86% | 1,512 | 13.89% | 120 | 1.10% | 291 | 2.67% | 29 | 0.27% | 7 | 0.06% | 5 | 0.05% | 10,885 |
| Luna | 3,195 | 43.80% | 3,478 | 47.68% | 481 | 6.59% | 66 | 0.90% | 50 | 0.69% | 13 | 0.18% | 5 | 0.07% | 7 | 0.10% | 7,295 |
| McKinley | 13,576 | 62.55% | 5,104 | 23.52% | 2,412 | 11.11% | 284 | 1.31% | 173 | 0.80% | 58 | 0.27% | 76 | 0.35% | 20 | 0.09% | 21,703 |
| Mora | 1,536 | 62.93% | 665 | 27.24% | 194 | 7.95% | 35 | 1.43% | 5 | 0.20% | 4 | 0.16% | 1 | 0.04% | 1 | 0.04% | 2,441 |
| Otero | 6,124 | 30.53% | 11,886 | 59.26% | 1,613 | 8.04% | 169 | 0.84% | 162 | 0.81% | 67 | 0.33% | 23 | 0.11% | 15 | 0.07% | 20,059 |
| Quay | 1,017 | 28.47% | 2,212 | 61.93% | 299 | 8.37% | 15 | 0.42% | 17 | 0.48% | 8 | 0.22% | 2 | 0.06% | 2 | 0.06% | 3,572 |
| Rio Arriba | 9,592 | 64.47% | 3,599 | 24.19% | 1,425 | 9.58% | 188 | 1.26% | 28 | 0.19% | 17 | 0.11% | 16 | 0.11% | 13 | 0.09% | 14,878 |
| Roosevelt | 1,454 | 24.44% | 3,884 | 65.28% | 482 | 8.10% | 48 | 0.81% | 58 | 0.97% | 11 | 0.18% | 8 | 0.13% | 5 | 0.08% | 5,950 |
| San Juan | 12,865 | 27.90% | 27,946 | 60.61% | 4,200 | 9.11% | 352 | 0.76% | 503 | 1.09% | 125 | 0.27% | 97 | 0.21% | 22 | 0.05% | 46,110 |
| San Miguel | 7,285 | 67.76% | 2,313 | 21.51% | 915 | 8.51% | 160 | 1.49% | 35 | 0.33% | 25 | 0.23% | 10 | 0.09% | 8 | 0.07% | 10,751 |
| Sandoval | 27,707 | 44.91% | 25,905 | 41.99% | 6,657 | 10.79% | 627 | 1.02% | 553 | 0.90% | 129 | 0.21% | 76 | 0.12% | 36 | 0.06% | 61,690 |
| Santa Fe | 50,793 | 71.10% | 14,332 | 20.06% | 4,362 | 6.11% | 1,452 | 2.03% | 295 | 0.41% | 75 | 0.10% | 95 | 0.13% | 30 | 0.04% | 71,434 |
| Sierra | 1,612 | 31.11% | 3,010 | 58.10% | 442 | 8.53% | 78 | 1.51% | 20 | 0.39% | 12 | 0.23% | 6 | 0.12% | 1 | 0.02% | 5,181 |
| Socorro | 3,313 | 48.24% | 2,616 | 38.09% | 802 | 11.68% | 60 | 0.87% | 39 | 0.57% | 15 | 0.22% | 20 | 0.29% | 3 | 0.04% | 6,868 |
| Taos | 10,668 | 69.91% | 2,727 | 17.87% | 1,179 | 7.73% | 617 | 4.04% | 31 | 0.20% | 6 | 0.04% | 27 | 0.18% | 5 | 0.03% | 15,260 |
| Torrance | 1,785 | 28.23% | 3,714 | 58.73% | 692 | 10.94% | 66 | 1.04% | 36 | 0.57% | 16 | 0.25% | 9 | 0.14% | 6 | 0.09% | 6,324 |
| Union | 320 | 18.80% | 1,216 | 71.45% | 134 | 7.87% | 13 | 0.76% | 9 | 0.53% | 7 | 0.41% | 1 | 0.06% | 2 | 0.12% | 1,702 |
| Valencia | 10,841 | 39.29% | 13,215 | 47.89% | 3,046 | 11.04% | 219 | 0.79% | 161 | 0.58% | 63 | 0.23% | 28 | 0.10% | 19 | 0.07% | 27,592 |
| Total | 385,234 | 48.26% | 319,666 | 40.04% | 74,541 | 9.34% | 9,879 | 1.24% | 5,825 | 0.73% | 1,514 | 0.19% | 1,184 | 0.15% | 475 | 0.06% | 798,318 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican[]
- Colfax (largest city: Raton)
- Hidalgo (largest city: Lordsburg)
- Valencia (largest village: Los Lunas)
By congressional district[]
Clinton won 2 of 3 congressional districts.[17]
| District | Trump | Clinton | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 35% | 52% | Michelle Lujan Grisham |
| 2nd | 50% | 40% | Steve Pearce |
| 3rd | 37% | 52% | Ben Ray Luján |
See also[]
- 2016 Democratic Party presidential debates and forums
- 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2016 Republican Party presidential debates and forums
- 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries
References[]
- ^ "Official Results - General Election - November 8, 2016". New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved 4 November 2020.
- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. 19 September 2019. Retrieved December 18, 2020.
- ^ "2016 Presidential Election Statistics". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved 2018-03-05.
- ^ Coleman, Michael (October 2, 2016). "Clinton, Trump in tight race in New Mexico". Albuquerque Journal.
- ^ Coleman, Michael (November 5, 2016). "Journal Poll: Clinton still ahead in NM". Albuquerque Journal.
- ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - New Mexico: Trump vs. Clinton".
- ^ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. 2016-11-06. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
- ^ Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
- ^ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
- ^ "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
- ^ Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
- ^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
- ^ "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. 2016-11-07. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
- ^ a b New Mexico Secretary of State (25 November 2016). "2016 General Election Official Results – Federal". Retrieved 14 November 2021.
- ^ Bump, Philip. "The counties that flipped parties to swing the 2016 election". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2020-09-01.
- ^ "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index". The Cook Political Report.
State and district results of the 2016 United States presidential election | ||
|---|---|---|
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- 2016 United States presidential election by state
- United States presidential elections in New Mexico
- 2016 New Mexico elections