2020 United States presidential election in Ohio

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in Ohio
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout74% Increase[1]
  Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 18 0
Popular vote 3,154,834 2,679,165
Percentage 53.27% 45.24%
Ohio Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
County Results
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in Ohio
Federal government
State government
Ballot measures
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Columbus
Toledo
  • v
  • t

The 2020 United States presidential election in Ohio was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Ohio voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee—incumbent President Donald Trump and his running mate, Vice President Mike Pence—against the Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate, California Senator Kamala Harris. Ohio had 18 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Republican Donald Trump won Ohio with 53.27% of the vote, while Biden received 45.24% of the vote, a margin of 8.03%. Trump won by nearly the same margin that he defeated Hillary Clinton by in 2016. This marked the first time that Ohio voted for the losing candidate since Richard Nixon in 1960, and also the second consecutive election in which the state voted over 10 points to the right of the nation as a whole, confirming the state's trend towards the Republicans. This is the first time since 1976 in which Ohio voted to the right of Texas, a state that last voted Democratic that year. Also, this is the first time since 1892 that an incumbent president carried the state while losing reelection nationally.

Analysis[]

Ohio, a Midwestern U.S. state, has been considered one of the most competitive states in said region in the early 21st century. For example, it was a vital tipping-point state in the heavily contested 2004 election, and its projection in 2012 put Barack Obama over the top in the Electoral College. After Trump won Ohio in 2016 by an unexpectedly large margin of 8 points, it was initially considered out of reach for Democrats. However, Democrats contested it after polling pointed to a possibly close result in 2020.

From 1964 through 2016, the Buckeye State had been a reliable bellwether, voting for the winner of every presidential election. In 2016, however, it voted over ten points to the right of the nation as a whole, indicating that it might be on the cusp of losing its bellwether status.[4] And, indeed, in 2020, Ohio backed the losing nominee for the first time since it backed Richard Nixon in 1960, and, in doing so, voted over ten points to the right of the nation overall for the second time in a row, giving Trump a comfortable eight-point margin even as he lost nationally. This indicated that Ohio is likely following a similar path to that of Missouri, another former bellwether state in the Midwest that has more recently become reliably red. (Missouri voted for the winning candidate in every election from 1960 to 2004. Then in 2008 it narrowly backed Republican John McCain despite his losing the election by a wide margin nationally, and in every election since it has voted Republican by a comfortable margin.) In this election, Ohio weighed in at 12.5% more Republican than the nation as a whole, even voting more Republican than Texas, a Southern state that has been a GOP stronghold for four decades.

While Biden outperformed Hillary Clinton in the Midwest at large, Trump managed to flip two Ohio counties Republican: Lorain, a suburban county of Cleveland, and Mahoning, anchored by the car-making town of Youngstown. Trump hence became the first Republican presidential candidate to win Lorain County since Ronald Reagan in 1984, and the first to win Mahoning County since Richard Nixon in 1972. Biden became the first Democrat since FDR in 1932[5] to win the White House without carrying Mahoning County and Trumbull County, and the first Democrat since Harry Truman in 1948 to win the White House without carrying Lorain County. On the other hand, Biden won back Montgomery County, home to Dayton, a county which Trump had flipped in 2016. He also came within 7 points of flipping suburban Delaware County in the Columbus area, the closest a Democrat has come to flipping it since 1964.

Biden's results were an all time-best for Democrats in two counties - Franklin, home to the state capital of Columbus, where he received 64.68% of the vote and beat Trump by 31 points, and Hamilton, home to Cincinnati, where he received 57.15% of the vote and beat Trump by 16 points, even beating out Franklin D. Roosevelt's and Lyndon B. Johnson's landslides. Also in Delaware County, his result of 45.69% was a 56-year best and in Warren County of suburban Cincinnati, his result was a 44-year best. He also outperformed Obama's 2012 results in Butler (Cincinnati suburbs) and Greene (Dayton suburbs) counties.

However, in all other counties, Biden underperformed Barack Obama's 2008 and 2012 results and occasionally also John Kerry's 2004 results. For example, in Athens County, home to Ohio University, which has been one of the Democrats' strongest counties that Obama won by 35 points in both 2008 and 2012, Biden improved Clinton's result by 1.5 percent, but Trump reduced his 2016 losing margin from 17 points to 15 and managed to win 40% of the county's vote, the first Republican to do so since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Biden underperformed Clinton in the Northeast and Lake Erie area, also in the most populous counties - in addition to losing Mahoning and Lorain counties, although in Cuyahoga County, home to Cleveland, he improved Clinton's 2016 result by 1 point, his 34-point winning margin was one point worse than Clinton's, six points down from Obama's 2012 40-point and only 0.36 percent better than Kerry's in 2004. In Lucas County, home to Toledo, he improved Clinton's result by 1.5 percent, but at a 1 percent worse margin at 16.73%, a 32-year low for Democrats after Michael Dukakis won it by under 9 points in 1988. While in Summit County, home to Akron, he improved Clinton's result by 2.35 percent and the margin by 1 percent, at 9.5 percent it was still a far cry from Obama's 17-percent margin in 2008, and second-worst for Democrats since 1988. In Stark County, home to Canton, he improved Clinton's result by 1.25 percent, but his 1.35% worse losing margin of 18.51 percent was a 36-year low for Democrats, after Walter Mondale lost it by 20.18 percent in 1984.

This was the first presidential election in which a candidate received more than 3 million votes in Ohio.

Ohio is one of three states—the others being Iowa and Florida—that voted twice for Barack Obama and twice for Donald Trump. Ohio and Florida also voted twice for George W. Bush, while Ohio and Iowa voted twice for Bill Clinton. All three voted twice for Ronald Reagan and Dwight Eisenhower, and three times for Richard Nixon.

Primary elections[]

The primary elections were originally scheduled for March 17, 2020. However, on March 16, Ohio governor Mike DeWine recommended moving the primaries to June amid concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic. As the governor does not have the power to unilaterally make this decision, he went to court to request the delay.[6] However, a judge rejected the lawsuit.[7] Later in the day, the state's Health Director ordered the polls closed as a health emergency.[8] On March 17, the Ohio Supreme Court allowed the primaries to be postponed to June 2.[9] Then on March 25, in-person voting was canceled, and the deadline for mail-in voting was moved back to April 28.[10]

Republican primary[]

Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of Ohio's 82 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[11]

This section is transcluded from 2020 Ohio Republican primary. ( | )
2020 Ohio Republican primary
Candidate Votes % Delegates
Donald Trump 682,845 100 82
Total 682,845 100.00 82

Democratic primary[]

This section is transcluded from 2020 Ohio Democratic presidential primary. ( | )
2020 Ohio Democratic presidential primary[12]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[13]
Joe Biden 647,284 72.37 115
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) 149,683 16.74 21
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 30,985 3.46 0
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) 28,704 3.21 0
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 15,113 1.69 0
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 11,899 1.33 0
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) 4,560 0.51 0
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 2,801 0.31 0
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 2,030 0.23 0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 822 0.09 0
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)
(write-in) 		502 0.06 0
Total 894,383 100% 136

Libertarian caucus[]

Main article: 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries
2020 Ohio Libertarian presidential caucus
April 11, 2020 2024 →
← MO
CT →
  Jacob Hornberger by Gage Skidmore (cropped) (3).jpg Jo Jorgensen by Gage Skidmore 3 (50448627641) (crop 2).jpg
Candidate Jacob Hornberger Jo Jorgensen None of the above
Home state Virginia South Carolina N/A
First vote 61
(31.8%) 		24
(12.5%) 		9
(4.7%)
Final vote 97
(50.5%) 		55
(28.6%) 		22
(11.5%)
  Vermin Supreme August 2019 (cropped).jpg Ken Armstrong POTUS46 Headshot (cropped).jpg Governor Lincoln Chafee (14116853474) (cropped).jpg
Candidate Vermin Supreme Ken Armstrong Lincoln Chafee
(withdrawn)[a]
Home state Massachusetts Oregon Wyoming
First vote 33
(17.2%) 		18
(9.4%) 		18
(9.4%)
Final vote Eliminated Eliminated Eliminated
  Mark Whitney-WM (cropped).jpg Kokesh2013 (cropped).jpg
Candidate Mark Whitney Adam Kokesh
Home state California Indiana
First vote 11
(5.7%) 		11
(5.7%)
Final vote Eliminated Eliminated
Ohio Libertarian presidential caucus election results by county, 2020.svg
First alignment vote results by county
  None of the above
  Jacob Hornberger
  Vermin Supreme
  Ken Armstrong
  Mark Whitney
  Jo Jorgensen
  Lincoln Chafee
  Adam Kokesh
  No votes

Online voting took place from March 16 to April 11, with 192 participants. The primary was tabulated using instant runoff voting. Percentages shown are percentage of ballots cast.

Ohio Libertarian presidential caucus[14]
Candidate Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7 Round 8
Votes % Transfer Votes % Transfer Votes % Transfer Votes % Transfer Votes % Transfer Votes % Transfer Votes % Transfer Votes %
Jacob Hornberger 61 31.8% + 0 61 31.8% + 0 61 31.8% + 5 66 34.4% + 3 69 35.9% + 7 76 39.6% + 8 84 43.8% + 13 97 50.5%
Jo Jorgensen 24 12.5% + 0 24 12.5% + 2 26 13.5% + 1 27 14.1% + 6 33 17.2% + 5 38 19.8% + 8 46 24.0% + 9 55 28.6%
NOTA 9 4.7% + 0 9 4.7% + 0 9 4.7% + 0 9 4.7% + 0 9 4.7% + 1 10 5.2% + 2 12 6.3% + 10 22 11.5%
Vermin Supreme 33 17.2% + 0 33 17.2% + 2 35 18.2% + 3 38 19.8% + 1 39 20.3% + 2 41 21.4% + 2 43 22.4% - 43 Eliminated
Ken Armstrong 18 9.4% + 1 19 9.9% + 0 19 9.9% + 0 19 9.9% + 1 20 10.4% + 2 22 11.5% - 22 Eliminated
Lincoln Chafee (withdrew during the voting period) 18 9.4% + 0 18 9.4% + 0 18 9.4% + 0 18 9.4% + 1 19 9.9% - 19 Eliminated
Mark Whitney 11 5.7% + 0 11 5.7% + 1 12 6.3% + 0 12 6.3% - 12 Eliminated
Adam Kokesh 11 5.7% + 0 11 5.7% + 0 11 5.7% - 11 Eliminated
Dan Taxation is Theft Behrman 6 3.1% + 0 6 3.1% - 6 Eliminated
Steve Richey 1 0.5% - 1 Eliminated
Round 1 Total 192 100.0% Round 2 Total 192
0 exhausted 		100.0% Round 3 Total 191
1 exhausted 		99.5% Round 4 Total 189
3 exhausted 		98.4% Round 5 Total 189
3 exhausted 		98.4% Round 6 Total 187
5 exhausted 		97.4% Round 7 Total 185
7 exhausted 		96.4% Round 8 Total 174
18 exhausted 		90.6%

General election[]

Final predictions[]

Source Ranking
The Cook Political Report[15] Tossup
Inside Elections[16] Tossup
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Lean R
Politico[18] Tossup
RCP[19] Tossup
Niskanen[20] Tossup
CNN[21] Tossup
The Economist[22] Tossup
CBS News[23] Tossup
270towin[24] Tossup
ABC News[25] Tossup
NPR[26] Tossup
NBC News[27] Tossup
538[28] Tossup

Polling[]

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[b] 		Margin
270 to Win November 1–2, 2020 November 3, 2020 46.7% 47.6% 5.7% Trump +0.9
Real Clear Politics October 28, 2020 – November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 46.3% 47.3% 6.4% Trump +1.0
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 46.6% 47.5% 5.7% Trump +0.8
Average 47.0% 47.5% 5.9% Trump +0.9

June 1, 2020 – October 31, 2020

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Green 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2 6,025 (LV) ± 2% 51%[d] 47% – – – –
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Oct 31 – Nov 1 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 45% – – 3%[e] –
Research Co. Oct 31 – Nov 1 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 47% 47% – – 2%[f] 4%
Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Oct 27 – Nov 1 516 (LV) ± 5.8% 52% 47% 1% 0% – –
Civiqs/Daily Kos Oct 29 – Nov 1 1,136 (LV) ± 3% 49% 48% – – 1%[g] 1%
Quinnipiac University Oct 28 – Nov 1 1,440 (LV) ± 2.6% 43% 47% – – 2%[f] 8%
Survey Monkey/Tableau Oct 20 – Nov 1 5,305 (LV) ± 2.0% 50% 47% – – –
Trafalgar Group Oct 30–31 1,041 (LV) ± 2.96% 49% 44% – – – –
Emerson College Oct 29–31 656 (LV) ± 3.8% 49%[h] 50% – – 2%[f] –
Morning Consult Oct 22–31 2,179 (LV) ± 2% 49% 47% – – – –
AtlasIntel Oct 29–30 660 (LV) ± 4% 50% 47% – – 3% –
Gravis Marketing Oct 27–28 613 (LV) ± 4% 49% 47% – – – 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 8,089 (LV) – 51% 47% – – – –
Quinnipiac University Oct 23–27 1,186 (LV) ± 2.9% 43% 48% – – 1%[g] 8%
Swayable Oct 23–26 440 (LV) ± 6.3% 55% 44% 1% 0% – –
Wick Surveys Oct 24–25 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 47% – – – –
Citizen Data Oct 17–20 1,000 (LV) ± 3% 44% 43% 2% 1% 2% 8%
Fox News Oct 17–20 1,018 (LV) ± 3% 48% 45% 3% 1% 1%[i] 3%
Morning Consult Oct 11–20 2,271 (LV) ± 2.1% 49% 47% – – – –
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Oct 18–19 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 48% – – 2%[j] 4%
Quinnipiac University Oct 8–12 1,160 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 48% – – 2%[f] 4%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[A] Oct 8–11 586 (LV) ± 4.2% 50% 47% – – 2%[f] 1%
Morning Consult Oct 2–11 2,283 (LV) ± 2.1% 49% 46% – – – –
Baldwin Wallace University Sep 30 – Oct 8 1,009 (LV) ± 3.1% 47% 45% 1% 0% 1%[k] 5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 2–6 661 (LV) ± 4.3% 44% 45% 2% 1% 0%[l] 7%[m]
Trafalgar Group Oct 1–3 1,035 (LV) ± 2.97% 48% 44% 3% 1% 1%[g] 4%
YouGov/CBS Sep 30 – Oct 2 1,114 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 47% – – 1%[n] 5%
OnMessage Inc./American Action Forum[B] Sep 28 – Oct 1 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 48% 47% 2% 1% 0%[o] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30 4,012 (LV) – 51% 47% – – – 2%
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[C] Sep 24–27 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 49% 47% – – – –
Fox News Sep 20–23 830 (LV) ± 3% 45% 50% 1% 1% 0%[p] 2%
907 (RV) ± 3% 44% 49% 1% 2% 2%[q] 3%
Quinnipiac University Sep 17–21 1,078 (LV) ± 3% 47% 48% – – 2% 4%
Baldwin Wallace University Sep 9–22 1,011 (LV) ± 3.3% 44% 45% 2% 0% 1%[k] 7%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[A] Sep 11–15 556 (RV) ± 4.3% 48%[r] 45% – – 5%[s] 1%
Morning Consult Aug 29 – Sep 7 1,963 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 50%[t] 45% – – – –
OnMessage Inc./American Action Forum[B] Aug 31 – Sep 3 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 51% 45% – – 2%[q] 3%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[1] Sep 1–2 1,000 (LV) ± 3% 47%[h] 51% – – 3%[e] –
ALG Research/Progressive Policy Institute[D] Aug 26 – Sep 1 500 (LV) – 46% 48% – – – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31 3,220 (LV) – 51% 48% – – – 2%
Morning Consult Aug 21–30 1,811 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 50% 45% – – – –
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[A] Aug 13–17 631 (RV) – 47% 47% – – 4%[u] 2%
Morning Consult Aug 7–16 1,744 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 49% 45% – – – –
TargetSmart/Progress Ohio[E] Jul 28 – Aug 3 1,249 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 47% – – 8%[v] –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31 3,694 (LV) – 52% 46% – – – 2%
Morning Consult Jul 17–26 1,741 (LV) ± 2.3% 48% 45% – – – –
YouGov/CBS Jul 21–24 1,211 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 45% – – 2%[w] 7%
Zogby Analytics Jul 21–23 805 (RV) ± 3.5% 41% 43% 4% 1% – 11%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports/AGPAC Archived July 22, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[F] Jul 15–16 750 (LV) ± 4% 46% 50% – – 2%[j] 2%
University of Akron Jun 24 – Jul 15 1,037 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 46% – – 6%[x] 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30 1,610 (LV) – 50% 49% – – – 1%
Quinnipiac Jun 18–22 1,139 (RV) ± 2.9% 45% 46% – – 4%[y] 5%
Fox News May 30 – Jun 2 803 (RV) ± 3.5% 43% 45% – – 6%[z] 6%

January 1, 2020 – May 31, 2020

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Joe
Biden (D) 		Other Undecided
Morning Consult May 17–26 1,720 (LV) – 50% 42% – –
Emerson College May 8–10 725 (RV) ± 3.5% 51%[aa] 49% – –
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Apr 20–25 797 (RV) ± 3.7% 44% 45% – 11%
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Mar 17–25 1,025 (RV) ± 3.3% 47% 43% – 10%
Change Research Mar 21–23 510 (LV) – 52% 44% – 5%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College Mar 10–13 1,710 (RV) ± 2.9% 45% 49% 1% 5%

January 1, 2018 – December 31, 2019

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Joe
Biden (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 10–11, 2019 776 (V) ± 3.5% 46% 48% – 6%
Climate Nexus[ab] Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 53% – –
42% 48% – 10%
Emerson College Sep 29 – October 2, 2019 837 (RV) ± 3.2% 47% 53% – –
Quinnipiac University Jul 17–22, 2019 1,431 (RV) ± 3.2% 42% 50% – –
Public Policy Polling Nov 27–28, 2018 648 (V) ± 3.9% 44% 48% – 8%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Cory
Booker (D) 		Undecided
Quinnipiac University Jul 17–22, 2019 1,431 (RV) ± 3.2% 44% 43% –

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Pete
Buttigieg (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 10–11, 2019 776 (V) ± 3.5% 47% 43% 10%
Climate Nexus[ab] Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 50% –
Climate Nexus Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 43% 11%
Quinnipiac University Jul 17–22, 2019 1,431 (RV) ± 3.2% 44% 44% –

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Kamala
Harris (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 10–11, 2019 776 (V) ± 3.5% 47% 43% 10%
Climate Nexus[ab] Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 50% –
Climate Nexus Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 43% 11%
Quinnipiac University Jul 17–22, 2019 1,431 (RV) ± 3.2% 44% 44% –

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Other Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Mar 17–25, 2020 1,025 (RV) ± 3.3% 47% 41% – 12%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College Mar 10–13, 2020 1,710 (RV) ± 2.9% 46% 48% 1% 5%
Public Policy Polling Oct 10–11, 2019 776 (V) ± 3.5% 47% 47% – 7%
Climate Nexus[ab] Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 48% 52% – –
45% 47% – 8%
Emerson College Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 837 (RV) ± 3.2% 47% 53% – –
Quinnipiac University Jul 17–22, 2019 1,431 (RV) ± 3.2% 46% 45% – –
Public Policy Polling Nov 27–28, 2018 648 (V) ± 3.9% 46% 47% – 7%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling Oct 10–11, 2019 776 (V) ± 3.5% 47% 47% 6%
Climate Nexus[ab] Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 49% 51% –
Climate Nexus Oct 1–7, 2019 1112 (LV) ± 2.9% 45% 46% 9%
Emerson College Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 837 (RV) ± 3.2% 48% 52% –
Quinnipiac University Jul 17–22, 2019 1,431 (RV) ± 3.2% 46% 45% –
Public Policy Polling Nov 27–28, 2018 648 (V) ± 3.9% 49% 43% 9%
Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 805 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 44% 16%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Sherrod Brown

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Sherrod
Brown (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling Nov 27–28, 2018 648 (V) ± 3.9% 42% 48% 10%

with Mike Pence and Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Pence (R) 		Joe
Biden (D)
Emerson College Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 837 (RV) ± 3.2% 46% 54%

with Mike Pence and Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Pence (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D)
Emerson College Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 837 (RV) ± 3.2% 49% 51%

with Mike Pence and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Pence (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Emerson College Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 837 (RV) ± 3.2% 49% 51%

with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Generic
Democrat (D) 		Other Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Mar 17–25, 2020 997 (RV) ± 3.7% 49.4%[ac] 48.3% – 2.1%[ad]
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Jan 8–20, 2020 1,031 (RV) ± 3.1% 41.3%[ac] 47.1% – 11.5%
Public Policy Polling Oct 10–11, 2019 776 (V) ± 3.5% 47% 48% – 5%
Ohio Northern University Apr 5–10, 2019 1,505 (A) ± 2.7% 34% 41% – 18%
Baldwin Wallace University Apr 24 – May 2, 2018 811 (RV) ± 3.5% 41% 44% 6% 9%
Baldwin Wallace University Feb 28 – Mar 9, 2018 1,011 (RV) ± 3.0% 34% 32% – –

with John Kasich and Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		John
Kasich (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Other Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University Apr 24 – May 2, 2018 811 (RV) ± 3.5% 37% 31% 13% 19%
Baldwin Wallace University Feb 28 – Mar 9, 2018 1,011 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 20% 12% –

Results[]

2020 United States presidential election in Ohio[29]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		3,154,834 53.27% +1.96%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		2,679,165 45.24% +2.00%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		67,569 1.14% -2.01%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker 		18,812 0.32% -0.52%
Write-in 1,882 0.32% -0.70%
Total votes 5,922,202 100.00%

By county[]

County[30] Donald Trump
Republican 		Joe Biden
Democratic 		Jo Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie Hawkins
Green 		Various candidates
Write-ins 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # % # % # %
Adams 9,870 81.27% 2,156 17.75% 92 0.76% 27 0.22% 0 0.00% 7,714 63.52% 12,145
Allen 33,116 68.85% 14,149 29.42% 590 1.23% 138 0.29% 106 0.22% 18,967 39.43% 48,099
Ashland 19,407 73.50% 6,541 24.77% 345 1.31% 105 0.40% 7 0.03% 12,866 48.73% 26,405
Ashtabula 26,890 60.79% 16,497 37.29% 559 1.26% 196 0.44% 95 0.21% 10,393 23.50% 44,237
Athens 10,862 41.58% 14,772 56.55% 299 1.14% 115 0.44% 72 0.28% −3,910 −14.97% 26,120
Auglaize 20,798 80.54% 4,651 18.01% 260 1.01% 0 0.00% 113 0.44% 16,147 62.53% 25,822
Belmont 23,560 71.09% 9,138 27.57% 285 0.86% 98 0.30% 60 0.18% 14,422 43.52% 33,141
Brown 16,480 77.96% 4,380 20.72% 182 0.86% 54 0.26% 43 0.20% 12,100 57.24% 21,139
Butler 114,392 61.26% 69,613 37.28% 2,177 1.17% 493 0.26% 62 0.03% 44,779 23.98% 186,737
Carroll 10,745 75.49% 3,251 22.84% 156 1.10% 56 0.39% 25 0.18% 7,494 52.65% 14,233
Champaign 14,589 72.93% 5,062 25.31% 260 1.30% 55 0.27% 37 0.18% 9,527 47.62% 20,003
Clark 39,032 60.65% 24,076 37.41% 829 1.29% 245 0.38% 169 0.26% 14,956 23.24% 64,351
Clermont 74,570 67.36% 34,092 30.79% 1,513 1.37% 0 0.00% 535 0.48% 40,478 36.57% 110,710
Clinton 15,488 75.32% 4,697 22.84% 270 1.31% 67 0.33% 41 0.20% 10,791 52.48% 20,563
Columbiana 35,726 71.51% 13,359 26.74% 607 1.21% 162 0.32% 106 0.21% 22,367 44.77% 49,960
Coshocton 12,325 73.50% 4,125 24.60% 227 1.35% 62 0.37% 29 0.17% 8,200 48.90% 16,768
Crawford 15,436 74.52% 4,916 23.73% 278 1.34% 53 0.26% 30 0.14% 10,520 50.79% 20,713
Cuyahoga 202,699 32.32% 416,176 66.36% 4,593 0.73% 2,031 0.32% 1,661 0.26% −213,477 −34.04% 627,160
Darke 22,004 81.01% 4,731 17.42% 331 1.22% 0 0.00% 95 0.35% 17,273 63.59% 27,161
Defiance 13,038 67.27% 5,981 30.86% 272 1.40% 78 0.40% 12 0.06% 7,057 36.41% 19,381
Delaware 66,356 52.51% 57,735 45.69% 1,630 1.29% 0 0.00% 653 0.52% 8,621 6.82% 126,374
Erie 22,160 54.83% 17,493 43.28% 522 1.29% 153 0.38% 88 0.22% 4,667 11.55% 40,416
Fairfield 50,797 60.97% 31,224 37.48% 1,033 1.24% 223 0.27% 34 0.04% 19,573 23.49% 83,311
Fayette 9,473 75.03% 2,975 23.56% 132 1.05% 32 0.25% 14 0.11% 6,498 51.47% 12,626
Franklin 211,237 33.40% 409,144 64.68% 7,718 1.22% 2,169 0.34% 2,264 0.26% −197,907 −31.28% 632,532
Fulton 15,731 68.98% 6,664 29.22% 299 1.31% 71 0.31% 41 0.18% 9,067 39.76% 22,806
Gallia 10,645 77.14% 2,990 21.67% 132 0.96% 32 0.23% 0 0.00% 7,655 55.47% 13,799
Geauga 34,143 60.95% 21,201 37.84% 534 0.95% 0 0.00% 143 0.26% 12,942 23.11% 56,021
Greene 52,072 58.74% 34,798 39.26% 1,458 1.64% 264 0.30% 51 0.06% 17,274 19.48% 88,643
Guernsey 13,407 73.41% 4,577 25.06% 177 0.97% 67 0.37% 36 0.20% 8,830 48.35% 18,264
Hamilton 177,886 41.28% 246,266 57.15% 5,211 1.21% 1,389 0.32% 177 0.04% −68,380 −15.87% 430,929
Hancock 26,310 67.86% 11,757 30.32% 580 1.50% 110 0.28% 14 0.04% 14,553 37.54% 38,771
Hardin 9,949 75.10% 3,062 23.11% 192 1.45% 44 0.33% 0 0.00% 6,887 51.99% 13,247
Harrison 5,792 75.58% 1,768 23.07% 59 0.77% 36 0.47% 8 0.10% 4,024 52.51% 7,663
Henry 10,479 70.86% 4,062 27.47% 175 1.18% 44 0.30% 28 0.19% 6,417 43.39% 14,788
Highland 15,678 79.68% 3,799 19.31% 146 0.74% 0 0.00% 53 0.27% 11,879 60.37% 19,676
Hocking 9,737 70.28% 3,880 28.00% 162 1.17% 40 0.29% 36 0.26% 5,857 42.28% 13,855
Holmes 10,796 83.19% 1,994 15.36% 125 0.96% 0 0.00% 63 0.49% 8,802 67.83% 12,978
Huron 18,956 69.72% 7,759 28.54% 387 1.42% 83 0.31% 5 0.02% 11,197 41.18% 27,190
Jackson 11,309 76.36% 3,311 22.36% 144 0.97% 0 0.00% 46 0.31% 7,998 54.00% 14,810
Jefferson 22,828 68.30% 10,018 29.98% 357 1.07% 100 0.30% 118 0.35% 12,810 38.32% 33,421
Knox 22,340 71.01% 8,589 27.30% 374 1.19% 86 0.27% 70 0.22% 13,751 43.71% 31,459
Lake 73,278 56.03% 55,514 42.45% 1,284 0.98% 408 0.31% 298 0.23% 17,764 13.58% 130,782
Lawrence 20,306 72.06% 7,489 26.58% 259 0.92% 0 0.00% 125 0.44% 12,817 45.48% 28,179
Licking 59,514 63.05% 33,055 35.02% 1,279 1.35% 312 0.33% 236 0.25% 26,459 28.03% 94,396
Logan 17,964 76.74% 5,055 21.59% 272 1.16% 69 0.29% 49 0.21% 12,909 55.15% 23,409
Lorain 79,520 50.40% 75,667 47.96% 1,677 1.06% 534 0.34% 370 0.23% 3,853 2.44% 157,768
Lucas 81,763 40.66% 115,411 57.39% 2,605 1.30% 780 0.39% 548 0.27% −33,648 −16.73% 201,107
Madison 13,835 69.57% 5,698 28.65% 269 1.35% 0 0.00% 85 0.43% 8,137 40.92% 19,887
Mahoning 59,903 50.26% 57,641 48.36% 966 0.81% 436 0.37% 244 0.20% 2,262 1.90% 119,190
Marion 19,023 68.25% 8,269 29.67% 414 1.49% 112 0.40% 53 0.19% 10,754 38.58% 27,871
Medina 64,598 60.92% 39,800 37.53% 1,144 1.08% 266 0.25% 233 0.22% 24,798 23.39% 106,041
Meigs 8,316 75.83% 2,492 22.72% 111 1.01% 32 0.29% 16 0.15% 5,824 53.11% 10,967
Mercer 19,452 81.79% 4,030 16.94% 204 0.86% 67 0.28% 31 0.13% 15,422 64.85% 23,784
Miami 41,371 71.23% 15,663 26.97% 782 1.35% 0 0.00% 261 0.45% 25,708 44.26% 58,077
Monroe 5,463 76.31% 1,605 22.42% 54 0.75% 26 0.36% 11 0.15% 3,858 53.89% 7,159
Montgomery 129,034 47.94% 135,064 50.18% 3,418 1.27% 884 0.33% 764 0.28% -6,030 -2.24% 269,164
Morgan 5,041 73.53% 1,725 25.16% 64 0.93% 0 0.00% 26 0.38% 3,316 48.37% 6,856
Morrow 14,077 76.22% 4,048 21.92% 257 1.39% 70 0.38% 16 0.09% 10,029 54.30% 18,468
Muskingum 27,867 68.86% 11,971 29.58% 459 1.13% 163 0.40% 7 0.02% 15,896 39.28% 40,467
Noble 5,135 80.89% 1,170 18.43% 25 0.39% 0 0.00% 18 0.28% 3,965 62.46% 6,348
Ottawa 14,628 60.83% 9,008 37.46% 292 1.21% 74 0.31% 44 0.18% 5,628 23.37% 24,046
Paulding 7,086 74.72% 2,213 23.33% 124 1.31% 38 0.40% 23 0.24% 4,873 51.39% 9,484
Perry 12,357 74.10% 4,098 24.57% 170 1.02% 47 0.28% 4 0.02% 8,259 49.53% 16,676
Pickaway 20,593 72.73% 7,304 25.80% 295 1.04% 0 0.00% 122 0.43% 13,289 46.93% 28,314
Pike 9,157 73.70% 3,110 25.03% 123 0.99% 0 0.00% 34 0.27% 6,047 48.67% 12,424
Portage 45,990 55.39% 35,661 42.95% 906 1.09% 295 0.36% 170 0.20% 10,329 12.44% 83,022
Preble 17,022 77.94% 4,493 20.57% 243 1.11% 0 0.00% 82 0.38% 12,529 57.37% 21,840
Putnam 16,412 82.28% 3,195 16.02% 247 1.24% 61 0.31% 32 0.16% 13,217 66.26% 19,947
Richland 41,472 69.15% 17,640 29.41% 680 1.13% 168 0.28% 15 0.03% 23,832 39.74% 59,975
Ross 22,278 66.77% 10,557 31.64% 345 1.03% 116 0.35% 69 0.21% 11,721 35.13% 33,365
Sandusky 18,896 62.72% 10,596 35.17% 448 1.49% 132 0.44% 56 0.19% 8,300 27.55% 30,128
Scioto 22,609 70.54% 9,080 28.33% 262 0.82% 91 0.28% 9 0.03% 13,529 42.21% 32,051
Seneca 17,086 66.10% 8,266 31.98% 357 1.38% 94 0.36% 45 0.17% 8,820 34.12% 25,848
Shelby 20,422 80.74% 4,465 17.65% 290 1.15% 71 0.28% 45 0.18% 15,957 63.09% 25,293
Stark 111,097 58.44% 75,904 39.93% 2,163 1.14% 683 0.36% 246 0.13% 35,193 18.51% 190,093
Summit 124,833 44.38% 151,668 53.92% 3,003 1.07% 888 0.32% 888 0.26% −26,835 −9.54% 281,280
Trumbull 55,194 54.57% 44,519 44.01% 913 0.90% 356 0.35% 170 0.17% 10,675 10.56% 101,152
Tuscarawas 30,458 69.09% 12,889 29.24% 494 1.12% 161 0.37% 85 0.19% 17,569 39.85% 44,087
Union 21,669 64.62% 11,141 33.22% 535 1.60% 100 0.30% 90 0.27% 10,528 31.40% 33,535
Van Wert 11,650 77.70% 3,067 20.45% 201 1.34% 42 0.28% 34 0.23% 8,583 57.25% 14,994
Vinton 4,632 76.71% 1,331 22.04% 47 0.78% 17 0.28% 11 0.18% 3,301 54.67% 6,038
Warren 87,988 64.49% 46,069 33.76% 1,747 1.28% 0 0.00% 637 0.47% 41,919 30.73% 136,441
Washington 22,307 69.53% 9,243 28.81% 372 1.16% 109 0.34% 50 0.16% 13,064 40.72% 32,081
Wayne 36,759 67.72% 16,660 30.69% 665 1.23% 173 0.32% 26 0.05% 20,099 37.03% 54,283
Williams 13,452 72.12% 4,842 25.96% 285 1.53% 70 0.38% 2 0.01% 8,610 46.16% 18,651
Wood 35,757 52.89% 30,617 45.29% 992 1.47% 211 0.31% 23 0.03% 5,140 7.60% 67,600
Wyandot 8,462 74.21% 2,733 23.97% 155 1.36% 38 0.33% 15 0.13% 5,729 50.24% 11,403
Totals 3,154,834 53.18% 2,679,165 45.16% 67,569 1.14% 18,812 0.32% 12,018 0.20% 475,669 8.02% 5,932,398

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican[]

  • Lorain (largest municipality: Lorain)
  • Mahoning (largest municipality: Youngstown)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic[]

  • Montgomery (largest municipality: Dayton)

Mahoning County[]

Mahoning County, anchored by the car-making town of Youngstown, voted Republican for the first time since Richard Nixon's landslide re-election in 1972. The slim victory by Trump marked a collapse in Democrats' support among white working-class voters, and tightened the President's grip on blue-collar white voters.

David Betras, who was Democratic chairman of Mahoning County until 2019, speculated on the disconnect between Democrats in Washington who focused messaging Trump's unfitness for office, his taxes and possible impeachment, and the concerns of blue-collar workers were supporting Trump for his trade war with China, regardless of economic pain caused by tariffs.[31]

By congressional district[]

Trump won 12 out of the 16 congressional districts in Ohio.

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 50.9% 47.7% Steve Chabot
2nd 55.6% 42.9% Brad Wenstrup
3rd 28.4% 70% Joyce Beatty
4th 67.1% 31.2% Jim Jordan
5th 61.6% 36.7% Bob Latta
6th 72.2% 26.5% Bill Johnson
7th 65.3% 33.2% Bob Gibbs
8th 66% 32.5% Warren Davidson
9th 39.7% 58.8% Marcy Kaptur
10th 51.4% 47% Mike Turner
11th 19.2% 79.8% Marcia Fudge
12th 52.2% 46.3% Troy Balderson
13th 47.6% 51% Tim Ryan
14th 53.9% 44.9% David Joyce
15th 56.3% 42.2% Steve Stivers
16th 56.5% 42.2% Anthony Gonzalez

See also[]

  • United States presidential elections in Ohio
  • 2020 Ohio elections
  • 2020 United States presidential election
  • 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
  • 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
  • 2020 United States elections

Notes[]

  1. ^ Withdrew after voting began.
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ Jump up to: a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. ^ Jump up to: a b "Some other candidate" with 3%
  6. ^ Jump up to: a b c d e "Someone else" with 2%
  7. ^ Jump up to: a b c "Someone else" with 1%
  8. ^ Jump up to: a b With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  9. ^ "Other" with 1%; would not vote with no voters
  10. ^ Jump up to: a b "Some other candidate" with 2%
  11. ^ Jump up to: a b "Another candidate" with 1%
  12. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  13. ^ Includes "Refused"
  14. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 1%
  15. ^ "Other" and would not vote with no voters
  16. ^ "Other" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
  17. ^ Jump up to: a b "Other" and would not vote with 1%
  18. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  19. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
  20. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  21. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  22. ^ "Other and Undecided" with 8%
  23. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  24. ^ "Other candidates" with 6%
  25. ^ "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
  26. ^ "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  27. ^ Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
  28. ^ Jump up to: a b c d e The poll below displays the results for voters who are sure how they will vote. This one incorporates the preferences of those who lean towards one of two candidates.
  29. ^ Jump up to: a b Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
  30. ^ "It depends on who the Democrats nominate" with 1.4%; "unsure" with 0.7%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Jump up to: a b c Rust Belt Rising is affiliated with the Democratic Party
  2. ^ Jump up to: a b The American Action Forum is a 501 organisation which usually supports Republican candidates
  3. ^ The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  4. ^ The Progressive Policy Institute endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  5. ^ Progress Ohio exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  6. ^ The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization

References[]

  1. ^ "2020 Official Election Results". Ohio Secretary of State. Retrieved March 18, 2021.
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ Grabar, Henry (November 13, 2018). "Democrats Proved They Can Win Again in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Why Not Ohio?". Slate Magazine. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  5. ^ "County winners, 1836-2016". Google Docs. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
  6. ^ Merica, Dan (March 16, 2020). "Ohio governor recommends delaying Tuesday's primary until June amid coronavirus pandemic". CNN. Retrieved March 16, 2020.
  7. ^ "Judge rejects lawsuit to delay Ohio's primary election". WBNS-TV. March 16, 2020. Retrieved March 16, 2020.[permanent dead link]
  8. ^ "Ohio health chief to order polls closed ahead of primary amid coronavirus". fox8.com. March 16, 2020. Retrieved March 16, 2020.
  9. ^ "Coronavirus: Ohio Supreme Court allows delay to primary election". The Columbus Dispatch. March 17, 2020.
  10. ^ "Ohio to run all-mail primary through April 28". Politico. March 25, 2020.
  11. ^ "Ohio Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved April 28, 2020.
  12. ^ "2020 ELECTIONS RESULTS". Ohio Secretary of State. Archived from the original on June 9, 2020. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  13. ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved April 30, 2020.
  14. ^ "2020 Ohio presidential caucus". Vote Free Ohio. April 11, 2020. Archived from the original on April 15, 2020. Retrieved April 12, 2020.
  15. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  16. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  17. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 2, 2020.
  18. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  19. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  20. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  21. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  22. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  23. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  24. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  25. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  26. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  27. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  28. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  29. ^ "2020 Official Elections Results". Ohio Secretary of State. November 2020. Archived from the original on January 6, 2021. Retrieved March 16, 2021.
  30. ^ "2020 Official Elections Results".
  31. ^ Gabriel, Trip (May 20, 2019). "There's No Boom in Youngstown, but Blue-Collar Workers Are Sticking With Trump (Published 2019)". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 28, 2020.

Further reading[]

External links[]

Retrieved from ""