Demography of Wales

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Map of population density in Wales at the 2011 census.

Demographics of Wales include the numbers in population, place of birth, age, ethnicity, religion, and number of marriages in Wales.

Historical population[]

Historical population
YearPop.±%
1801 587,128—    
1811 673,337+14.7%
1821 789,271+17.2%
1831 904,312+14.6%
1841 1,045,958+15.7%
1851 1,163,139+11.2%
1861 1,286,413+10.6%
1871 1,412,583+9.8%
1881 1,604,821+13.6%
1891 1,788,639+11.5%
1901 2,012,876+12.5%
1911 2,420,921+20.3%
1921 2,656,474+9.7%
1931 2,593,332−2.4%
1951 2,596,850+0.1%
1961 2,644,023+1.8%
1971 2,731,204+3.3%
1981 2,790,500+2.2%
1991 2,811,865+0.8%
2001 2,910,200+3.5%
2011 3,063,456+5.3%
2019 3,152,879+2.9%
Source: [1] [2]
Year Population[3][4]
1536 278,000
1620 360,000
1770 500,000
1801 587,000
1851 1,163,000
1911 2,421,000
1921 2,656,000
1939 2,487,000
1961 2,644,023
1991 2,811,865
2011 3,063,456

The population of Wales doubled from 587,000 in 1801 to 1,163,000 in 1851 and had reached 2,421,000 by 1911. Most of the increase came in the coal mining districts especially Glamorganshire, which grew from 71,000 in 1801 to 232,000 in 1851 and 1,122,000 in 1911.[5] Part of this increase can be attributed to the demographic transition seen in most industrialising countries during the Industrial Revolution, as death-rates dropped and birth-rates remained steady. However, there was also a large-scale migration of people into Wales during the industrial revolution.

Current population[]

The 2011 census showed Wales' population to be 3,063,456, the highest in its history.[6] In 2011, 27 per cent (837,000) of the total population of Wales were not born in Wales,[7] including 636,000 people (21 per cent of the total population of Wales) who were born in England.[8] The main population and industrial areas are in south Wales, including the cities of Cardiff, Swansea and Newport and the nearby valleys, with another significant population in the north-east around Wrexham and Flintshire.

According to the 2001 census, 96 per cent of the population was White British, and 2.1 per cent non-white (mainly of British Asian origin).[9] Most non-white groups were concentrated in Cardiff, Newport and Swansea. Welsh Asian and African communities developed mainly through immigration after the Second World War.[10] In the early 21st century, parts of Wales saw an increased number of immigrants settle from recent EU accession countries such as Poland;[11] though a 2007 study showed a relatively low number of employed immigrant workers from the former Eastern Bloc countries in Wales compared to other regions of the United Kingdom.[12] The 2001 UK census was criticised in Wales for not offering 'Welsh' as an option to describe respondents' national identity.[13] Partly to address this concern, the 2011 census asked the question "How would you describe your national identity?". Respondents were instructed to "tick all that apply" from a list of options that included Welsh. The outcome was that 57.5 per cent of Wales' population indicated their sole national identity to be Welsh; a further 7.1 per cent indicated it to be both Welsh and British. No Welsh national identity was indicated by 34.1 per cent. The proportion giving their sole national identity as British was 16.9 per cent, and another 9.4 per cent included British with another national identity. No British national identity was indicated by 73.7 per cent. 11.2 per cent indicated their sole national identity as English and another 2.6 per cent included English with another national identity.[14][15][16]

The 2011 census showed Wales to be less ethnically diverse than any region of England:[17] 93.2 per cent classed themselves as White British (including Welsh, English, Scottish or Northern Irish), 2.4 per cent as "Other White" (including Irish), 2.2 per cent as Asian (including Asian British), 1 per cent as Mixed, and 0.6 per cent as Black (African, Caribbean, or Black British). The lowest proportion of White British (80.3 per cent) was in Cardiff.[16][18]

In 2001, a quarter of the Welsh population were born outside Wales, mainly in England; about 3 per cent were born outside the UK. The proportion born in Wales varies across the country, with the highest percentages in the south Wales valleys and the lowest in mid Wales and parts of the north-east. In both Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil, 92 per cent were Welsh-born, compared with only 51 per cent and 56 per cent in the border counties of Flintshire and Powys.[19] Just over 1.75 million Americans report themselves to have Welsh ancestry, as did 440,965 Canadians in Canada's 2006 census.[20][21]

The total fertility rate (TFR) in Wales was 1.90 in 2011,[22] which is below the replacement rate of 2.1. The majority of births are to unmarried women (58 per cent of births in 2011 were outside marriage).[23] About one in 10 births (10.7 per cent) in 2011 were to foreign-born mothers, compared to 5.2 per cent in 2001.[24]

Vital statistics[]

[25]

Average population Live births Deaths Natural change Crude birth rate (per 1000) Crude death rate (per 1000) Natural change (per 1000) Fertility rates
1940 39,319 35,585 3,734 13.9 12.6 1.3 1.84
1941 39,886 35,837 4,049 13.7 12.3 1.4 1.82
1942 43,130 31,360 11,770 15.4 11.2 4.2 2.03
1943 43,270 31,496 11,774 16.0 11.6 4.4 2.11
1944 46,730 30,987 15,743 17.5 11.6 5.9 2.33
1945 41,515 31,892 9,623 15.7 12.1 3.6 2.12
1946 47,566 31,547 16,019 19.0 12.3 6.7 2.55
1947 51,163 33,291 17,872 20.4 13.3 7.1 2.75
1948 47,175 30,095 17,080 17.7 11.3 6.4 2.46
1949 44,337 32,109 12,228 16.6 12.0 4.6 2.35
1950 42,776 33,295 9,481 15.4 12.9 2.5 2.26
1951 41,270 36,005 5,265 15.2 13.3 1.9 2.21
1952 41,388 31,005 10,383 15.1 11.3 3.8 2.23
1953 41,528 31,392 10,136 15.3 12.4 2.9 2.31
1954 40,256 32,822 7,704 15.0 12.3 2.7 2.28
1955 38,876 33,938 4,938 14.8 12.7 2.1 2.25
1956 40,915 32,438 8,477 15.5 12.0 3.5 2.41
1957 41,645 32,696 8,949 15.9 12.3 3.6 2.43
1958 42,460 32,642 9,818 16.2 12.2 4.0 2.50
1959 42,262 32,134 10,128 16.3 12.1 4.2 2.56
1960 44,147 32,715 11,432 17.0 12.3 4.7 2.68
1961 44,923 33,705 11,218 17.4 12.9 4.5 2.75
1962 45,382 33,781 11,601 17.8 13.0 4.8 2.83
1963 47,038 34,763 12,275 18.0 13.2 4.8 2.95
1964 47,502 32,746 14,756 18.3 12.3 6.0 2.99
1965 46,292 33,062 13,230 17.9 12.4 5.5 2.91
1966 44,866 34,643 10,223 17.5 12.8 4.7 2.81
1967 43,706 33,160 10,546 17.0 12.2 4.8 2.73
1968 44,207 34,892 9,315 16.7 12.9 3.8 2.62
1969 43,082 35,953 7,129 16.2 13.5 2.7 2.53
1970 42,487 34,998 7,489 15.8 12.8 3.0 2.47
1971 2,740,000 43,056 34,817 8,239 15.7 12.5 3.0 2.45
1972 2,755,000 39,955 36,000 3,955 14.5 13.1 1.4 2.24
1973 2,772,000 37,597 35,826 1,771 13.6 12.9 0.7 2.08
1974 2,785,000 36,206 35,634 572 13.0 12.8 0.2 1.97
1975 2,795,000 33,972 35,610 -1,638 12.2 12.7 -0.5 1.87
1976 2,799,000 33,738 36,345 -2,607 11.9 13.0 -1.1 1.79
1977 2,800,000 31,765 35,205 -3,440 11.3 12.6 -1.3 1.72
1978 2,804,000 33,308 35,963 -2,665 11.9 12.8 -0.9 1.79
1979 2,810,000 36,174 36,087 87 12.9 12.8 0.1 1.91
1980 2,815,000 37,357 35,149 2,208 13.3 12.5 0.8 1.95
1981 2,813,000 35,842 35,015 827 12.7 12.4 0.3 1.87
1982 2,804,000 35,720 35,152 568 12.7 12.5 0.2 1.86
1983 2,803,000 35,494 35,242 252 12.7 12.6 0.1 1.83
1984 2,800,000 35,861 33,652 2,209 12.8 12.0 0.8 1.83
1985 2,803,000 36,771 35,536 1,235 13.1 12.7 0.4 1.86
1986 2,811,000 37,038 34,712 2,326 13.2 12.3 0.9 1.86
1987 2,822,000 37,816 33,919 3,897 13.4 12.0 1.4 1.88
1988 2,841,000 38,824 33,981 4,842 13.7 12.0 1.7 1.91
1989 2,855,000 38,019 35,134 2,885 13.3 12.3 1.0 1.86
1990 2,861,000 38,866 33,963 4,903 13.6 11.9 1.7 1.91
1991 2,873,000 38,079 34,136 3,943 13.3 11.9 1.4 1.88
1992 2,877,000 37,523 33,792 3,731 13.0 11.7 1.3 1.87
1993 2,883,000 36,578 35,826 752 12.7 12.4 0.3 1.84
1994 2,887,000 35,366 33,824 1,542 12.2 11.7 0.5 1.79
1995 2,888,000 34,477 35,306 -829 11.9 12.2 -0.3 1.77
1996 2,891,000 34,894 34,802 92 12.1 12.0 0.1 1.81
1997 2,895,000 34,520 34,886 -366 11.9 12.1 -0.2 1.81
1998 2,899,000 33,438 33,905 -467 11.5 11.7 -0.2 1.78
1999 2,900,000 32,111 34,929 -2,818 11.1 12.0 -0.9 1.72
2000 2,907,000 31,304 33,501 -2,197 10.8 11.5 -0.7 1.68
2001 2,910,000 30,616 33,249 -2,633 10.5 11.4 -0.9 1.66
2002 2,923,000 30,205 33,314 -3,108 10.3 11.4 -1.1 1.64
2003 2,937,000 31,400 33,810 -2,410 10.7 11.5 -0.8 1.71
2004 2,957,000 32,325 32,317 8 10.9 10.9 0.0 1.76
2005 2,969,000 32,593 32,162 431 11.0 10.8 0.2 1.78
2006 2,985,000 33,628 31,083 2,545 11.3 10.4 1.1 1.82
2007 3,006,000 34,414 32,148 2,266 11.4 10.7 0.7 1.86
2008 3,026,000 35,650 32,066 3,584 11.8 10.6 1.2 1.91
2009 3,039,000 34,937 31,066 3,871 11.5 10.2 1.3 1.87
2010 3,050,000 35,952 31,197 4,755 11.8 10.2 1.6 1.92
2011 3,063,000 35,598 30,426 5,172 11.6 9.9 1.7 1.90
2012 3,074,000 35,238 31,502 3,736 11.5 10.2 1.3 1.88
2013 3,082,000 33,747 32,138 1,609 10.9 10.4 0.5 1.80
2014 3,092,000 33,544 31,439 2,105 10.8 10.2 0.6 1.78
2015 3,099,000 33,279 33,198 81 10.7 10.7 0.0 1.77
2016 3,113,000 32,936 33,047 –111 10.6 10.6 –0.0 1.74
2017 3,125,000 32,176 33,248 −1,072 10.4 10.6 −0.2 1.69
2018 3,139,000 31,274 34,406 –3,132 10.0 11.0 –1.0 1.63
2019 3,153,000 29,704 32,900 -3,196 9.4 10.4 -1.0 1.54
2020 3,170,000 28,661 37,403 -8,742 9.0 11.8 -2.8 1.48

Current vital statistics[]

[26][27]

Period Live births Deaths Natural increase
January - March 2020 7,149 9,434 -2,285
January - March 2021 6,658 10,614 -3,956
Difference Decrease -491 (-6.87%) Negative increase +1,180 (+12.51%) Decrease -1,671

Place of birth[]

According to the 2011 census 2.2 million (73%) of the usual residents were born in Wales, a reduction of two percent since 2001. In 2001, 590,000 (20%) of the population of Wales was born in England. By 2011, the proportion of English-born citizens of Wales had increased by one percent to 21%. In 2011, 27% (837,000) of the total population of Wales were born outside Wales, and of these immigrants 636,000 (76%) were born in England.[28]

Map showing the percentage of the population born in England according to the 2011 census.
Country of birth 2001[29] 2011[30]
Number % Number %
 Wales 2,188,754 75.39% 2,226,005 72.66%
 England 589,828 20.32% 636,266 20.77%
 Scotland 24,389 0.84% 24,346 0.79%
 Northern Ireland 7,851 0.27% 8,253 0.27%
 UK not otherwise specified 715 0.02%
 Republic of Ireland 12,718 0.44% 12,175 0.40%
Other  European Union Member Countries 23,694 0.82% 55,360 1.81%
Other  European Union Member Countries (joined pre 2001) 26,343 0.86%
Other  European Union Member Countries (joined post 2001) 29,017 0.95%
Other countries 55,851 1.92% 100,336 3.28%
Total 2,903,085 100.00% 3,063,456 100.00%

Below are the 5 largest foreign-born groups in Wales according to 2014 ONS estimates.[31]

Country of birth Estimated population
2013 2014 2015
 Poland 20,000 22,000 23,000
 Republic of Ireland 11,000 12,000 10,000
 India 10,000 12,000 13,000
 Germany 11,000 11,000 11,000
 South Africa 7,000 6,000 6,000

Age[]

According to the 2011 census, some 563,000 of the population were aged 65 and over, an increase of 56,700 or one percent since 2001. As in 2001, six per cent (178,000) of the population in Wales were children under five, an increase of 11,300.[30]

Population pyramid for Wales as at the 2011 census.
Ages attained
(years) 		Population % of total
0–4 178,301 5.82
5–9 163,079 5.32
10–14 177,748 5.80
15–19 199,120 6.50
20–24 211,924 6.92
25–29 185,728 6.06
30–34 174,694 5.70
35–39 183,045 5.98
40–44 213,155 6.96
45–49 213,155 7.20
50–54 201,599 6.58
55–59 186,923 6.10
60–64 204,885 6.69
65–69 166,007 5.42
70–74 134,543 4.39
75–79 108,202 3.53
80–84 79,232 2.59
85–89 49,360 1.61
90+ 25,200 0.82
Source: 2011 Census: Usual resident population by five-year age group and sex, local authorities in the United Kingdom, Accessed 23 December 2012

National identity[]

A question on national identity was asked in the 2011 census: "What do you feel is your national identity?" Respondents could identify themselves as having one or more national identity.

An analysis of the 2011 data by Manchester University's Centre on Dynamics of Ethnicity revealed that:[32]

  • 58% identified as "Welsh only"
  • 16% identified as "British only"
  • 12% identified as "English only"
  • 7% identified as "Welsh and British"

The remainder chose other national identities. (Percentiles are majoritively shown.) The Welsh-Caribbean population were the most likely to respond as "Welsh Only", at 59% of 11,099 citizens.

A 2018 poll, commissioned by the BBC and carried out by YouGov, found that almost eight in 10 (79%) people in Wales identified strongly as British; while six in 10 (62%) identified strongly as Welsh.[33][34]

Ethnicity[]

According to the 2011 census, 2.2 million (73%) of usual residents of Wales were born there, two percent less than in 2001. The change can be attributed to both international and internal migration. In 2001, 590,000 (20%) of the population of Wales was born in England. In 2011, this had increased by one percent.[30] Nearly 418,000 people identified themselves as Welsh in 2001.

The 2001 and 2011 census estimated the following ethnic groups:

Ethnic group 2001 population 2001 percentage 2011 population 2011 percentage
White: British 2,786,605 96.0 2,855,450 93.2
White: Irish 17,689 0.6 14,086 0.5
White: Irish Traveller/White Gypsy[note 1] 2,785 0.1
White: Other 37,211 1.3 55,932 1.8
White: Total 2,841,505 97.9 2,928,253

95.6

Asian or Asian British: Indian 8,261 0.3 17,256 0.6
Asian or Asian British: Pakistani 8,287 0.3 12,229 0.4
Asian or Asian British: Bangladeshi 5,436 0.2 10,687 0.3
Asian or Asian British: Chinese[note 2] 6,267 0.2 13,638 0.4
Asian or Asian British: Asian Other 3,464 0.1 16,318 0.5
Asian or Asian British: Total 31,715 1.1 70,128

2.3

Black or Black British: Caribbean 2,597 0.1 3,809 0.1
Black or Black British: African 3,727 0.1 11,887 0.4
Black or Black British: Other 745 <0.1 2,580 0.1
Black or Black British: Total 7,069 0.2 18,276

0.6

Mixed: White and Caribbean 5,996 0.2 11,099 0.4
Mixed: White and African 2,413 0.1 4,424 0.1
Mixed: White and Asian 5,001 0.2 9,019 0.3
Mixed: Other Mixed 4,251 0.2 6,979 0.2
British Mixed: Total 17,661 0.7 31,521

1.0

Other: Arab[note 1] 9,615 0.3
Other: Any other ethnic group 5,135 0.2 5,663 0.2
Other: Total 5,135 0.2 15,278

0.5

Total 2,903,085 100 3,063,456

100

Notes for table above

  1. ^ Jump up to: a b New category created for the 2011 census
  2. ^ In 2001, listed under the 'Chinese or other ethnic group' heading.
Source: Census 2001 Key Statistics - Urban area summary results for local authorities KS06 Ethnic group, Retrieved 18 June 2013
Source: Census 2011: Ethnic group, unitary authorities in Wales, Accessed 23 December 2012

Religion[]

According to the 2011 census, there was a decrease of 14 percentage points in the number of Welsh residents describing themselves as Christian since 2001, when it had been cited by 2.1 million (72%) residents. Christianity experienced a significant decrease in numbers between 2001 and 2011 despite population growth.

The second largest response group for this question in 2011 was those identifying no religion. This increased from 538,000 (19%) of residents in 2001 to 983,000 (32%) in 2011, a larger rise than in any region of England.[30]

Religion 2001[35][36] 2011[35][37]
Number % Number %
Christianity 2,087,242 71.9 1,763,299 57.6
No religion 537,935 18.5 982,997 32.1
Religion not stated 234,143 8.1 233,928 7.6
Islam 21,739 0.7 45,950 1.5
Other religion 6,909 0.2 12,705 0.4
Hinduism 5,439 0.2 10,434 0.3
Buddhism 5,407 0.2 9,117 0.3
Sikhism 2,015 0.1 2,962 0.1
Judaism 2,256 0.1 2,064 0.1
Total population 2,903,085 100.0 3,063,456 100.0

Language[]

The 2011 census collected information about English and Welsh language proficiency. In 2011, 2.9 million (97%) of residents, age three and over, spoke English or Welsh. In a further 18,000 households, at least one adult spoke English or Welsh. In 22,000 households, no resident spoke either language. There were 562,000 (19%) residents, over age three, proficient in at least speaking the Welsh language. This was a reduction of approximately 2 per cent compared to 2001, though the method of analysis differed between the two censuses. There was also a 2% increase in those, over three years of age, who had no Welsh language skills.[30]

The proportion of respondents in the 2011 census who said they could speak Welsh.
Welsh language skills 2001 number (,000) 2001% 2011 number (,000) 2011% change (,000) change %
No skills in Welsh 2,008 71.6 2,168 73.3 160 1.7
Can speak, read and write Welsh 458 16.3 431 14.6 -27 -1.7
Can understand spoken Welsh only 138 4.9 158 5.3 19 0.4
Can speak but cannot read or write Welsh 79 2.8 80 2.7 1 -0.1
Other combination of skills in Welsh 84 3.0 73 2.5 -10 -0.5
Can speak and read but cannot write Welsh 38 1.4 46 1.5 7 0.1
Source: 2011 Census: KS207WA Welsh language skills, unitary authorities in Wales, Accessed 23 December 2012

The most common main languages spoken in Wales according to the 2011 census are shown below.[38]

Language Usual residents aged 3+ Proportion
English or Welsh 2,871,405 97.14%
Polish 17,001 0.58%
Arabic 6,800 0.23%
Bengali (with Sylheti and Chatgaya) 5,207 0.18%
Tagalog/Filipino 2,749 0.09%
Portuguese 2,451 0.08%
Urdu 2,350 0.08%
French 2,073 0.07%
German 2,050 0.07%
Italian 1,694 0.06%
Other 42,061 1.42%

Marriage and civil partnership[]

In 2011 those who were married were still the largest marriage / civil partnership status group in Wales for residents aged 16 and over though since 2001 this group has decreased by 37,000 (over 5%). In contrast, single people (i.e. those who have never married or been part of a same sex partnership), have increased by 190,000 (6%) in the ten-year period. Civil partnerships, which were given legal status in 2005, appear for the first time in the census results. The number of widows, widowers and surviving partners is 20,000 lower than in 2001. The final groups, relating to separation and divorce / legal dissolution of civil partnerships, have both seen an increase in both numerical and relative terms since 2001.[30]

Status 2001 number (,000) 2001% 2011 number (,000) 2011%
Married 1,204 52.0 1,167 46.6
Single 650 28.1 840 33.5
Divorced / legally dissolved 201 8.7 242 9.7
Widowed or surviving partner 218 9.4 198 7.9
Separated 44 1.9 55 2.2
Civil partnership n/a n/a 5 0.2

Table key

  • Single = Single never married or registered a same-sex civil partnership)
  • Divorced / legally dissolved = divorced or formerly in a same-sex civil partnership which is now legally dissolved
  • Widowed or surviving partner = Widowed or surviving partner from a same-sex civil partnership
  • Separated = Separated (but still legally married or still legally in a same-sex civil partnership)
  • Civil partnership = In a registered same-sex civil partnership
Source: 2011 Census: KS103EW Marital and civil partnership status, unitary authorities in Wales, Accessed 23 December 2012

Miscellaneous data[]

  • Population density (2006): 143 people per square kilometre[39]
  • Fertility rate: 1.90 (2007)[40]
  • In 2010, 58% of births were outside marriage in Wales.[41] Currently, Wales and Scotland are the only countries of the United Kingdom where the majority of births are outside of marriage (51.3% of births in Scotland in 2012 were outside of marriage).[42] Wales (along with Scotland) also had the highest death rate (10.9 per thousand) in 2005.[43]

See also[]

References[]

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  2. ^ "Population estimates". Office for National Statistics. Retrieved 21 October 2017.
  3. ^ John Davies (1993). A History of Wales. pp. 258–59, 319. ISBN 9780141926339.
  4. ^ 200 Years of the Census in ... Wales (2001)
  5. ^ Brian R. Mitchell and Phyllis Deane, Abstract of British Historical Statistics (Cambridge, 1962) pp 20, 22
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  12. ^ Ford, Richard (12 October 2007). "Break out the golabki as Polish workers spread across map of Britain". The Times. London: TimesOnline. Retrieved 25 November 2010.
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  15. ^ "Nationalia – Two out of three inhabitants of Wales consider Welsh to be their national identity". Retrieved 7 October 2014.
  16. ^ Jump up to: a b 2011 Census: First Results for Ethnicity, National Identity, and Religion for Wales (PDF), Welsh Government, 2012, archived from the original (PDF) on 24 December 2012, retrieved 6 March 2014
  17. ^ "ONS, "Ethnicity and National Identity in England and Wales 2011", 2012, p.8" (PDF).
  18. ^ "2011 Census: KS201EW Ethnic group, local authorities in England and Wales". Office for National Statistics. Retrieved 28 February 2014.
  19. ^ "Use of the census of population to discern trends in the Welsh language: an aggregate analysis" (PDF). Office for National Statistics. 8 January 2004. Archived from the original (PDF) on 8 March 2012. Retrieved 10 February 2012.
  20. ^ "Profile of General Demographic Characteristics: 2000" (PDF). United States Census Bureau. July 2002. Retrieved 2 October 2010.
  21. ^ "Ethnic origins, 2006 counts, for Canada, provinces and territories – 20% sample data". Statistics Canada. 8 January 2004. Retrieved 19 June 2010.
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  26. ^ "Provisional births in England and Wales".
  27. ^ "Deaths registered monthly in England and Wales".
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  31. ^ "Table 1.3: Overseas-born population in the United Kingdom, excluding some residents in communal establishments, by sex, by country of birth, January 2014 to December 2014". Office for National Statistics. 27 August 2015. Retrieved 17 April 2016. Figures given are the central estimates. See the source for 95 per cent confidence intervals.
  32. ^ Harries, Bethan; Byrne, Bridget; Lymperopoulou, Kitty (November 2014). "who identifies as Welsh? National identities and ethnicity in Wales" (PDF). Centre on Dynamics of Ethnicity (CoDE) / University of Manchester. Retrieved 29 July 2019.
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