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2021 Canadian federal election

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2021 Canadian federal election

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338 seats in the House of Commons
170 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Trudeau G7 Cropped.jpeg
Erin O'Toole March 18, 2021 portrait (cropped).jpg
Yves-Francois Blanchet in October 2009.jpg
Leader Justin Trudeau Erin O'Toole Yves-François Blanchet
Party Liberal Conservative Bloc Québécois
Leader since April 14, 2013 August 24, 2020 January 17, 2019
Leader's seat Papineau Durham Beloeil—Chambly
Last election 157 seats, 33.12% 121 seats, 34.34% 32 seats, 7.63%
Current seats 155 119 32
Seats needed Increase15 Increase51 Steady[a]

 
Jagmeet Singh at the 2nd National Bike Summit - Ottawa - 2018 (42481105871) (cropped v2).jpg
Annamie Paul in Toronto Regent Park (cropped).jpg
Leader Jagmeet Singh Annamie Paul
Party New Democratic Green
Leader since October 1, 2017 October 3, 2020
Leader's seat Burnaby South Running in Toronto Centre[1]
Last election 24 seats, 15.98% 3 seats, 6.55%
Current seats 24 2
Seats needed Increase146 Increase168

Canada Election 2021 Results Map.svg
Map showing boundaries of the 338 federal ridings to be contested

Incumbent Prime Minister

Justin Trudeau
Liberal



The 2021 Canadian federal election will take place on September 20, 2021, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The writs of election were issued by Governor General Mary May Simon on August 15, 2021, when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau requested the dissolution of Parliament for a snap election.[2]

Background

The 2019 federal election resulted in the Liberals, led by incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, losing both their parliamentary majority and the popular vote, but nevertheless winning the most seats and remaining in office as a minority government. The Conservatives, who had gained seats and won the popular vote, continued as the Official Opposition. The Bloc Québécois regained official party status and became the third party, replacing the New Democrats in that role, with the latter party losing seats but maintaining official party status as the fourth party. Although the Greens increased their seats in the House of Commons, they ultimately failed to achieve the required number of MPs—twelve—for official party status. No other party won any seats.

In the immediate aftermath of the election, all leaders initially announced that they would continue as the heads of their respective parties into the next session of Parliament.[3][4][5] However, Elizabeth May said that she might not lead the Greens into the 44th election, and she ultimately resigned as Green Party leader on November 4, 2019.[6][7] On November 6, 2019, the members of the Conservative caucus decided to not adopt a measure which would have given them the ability to remove Andrew Scheer as leader. His leadership would still have been reviewed at the party's next convention, which was scheduled for April 2020.[8][9] However, on December 12, Scheer announced his intention to resign as leader.[10] He stayed on until his successor, Erin O'Toole, was chosen and remains as the MP for Regina—Qu'Appelle.[11][12]

On August 15, 2021, after a request from Prime Minister Trudeau, the governor general dissolved parliament and called an election for September 20.[2] The election was called on the same day as the Fall of Kabul. In the first two weeks of the campaign, Trudeau received criticism for not acting fast enough in the face of the 2021 Taliban offensive to evacuate Afghans who supported Canada's military and diplomatic efforts during the War in Afghanistan.[13]

Parties and standings

The table below lists parties represented in the House of Commons after the 2019 federal election, and the standings at dissolution. An expected by-election in Haldimand—Norfolk to fill the vacant seat was rendered moot by the commencement of the general election.

Name Ideology Position Leader 2019 result At dissolution
Votes (%) Seats
Liberal Liberalism
Social liberalism
Centre to centre-left Justin Trudeau
33.12%
157 / 338
155 / 338
Conservative Conservatism
Economic liberalism
Fiscal conservatism
Centre-right to right-wing Erin O'Toole
34.34%
121 / 338
119 / 338
Bloc Québécois Quebec nationalism Centre-left Yves-François Blanchet
7.63%
32 / 338
32 / 338
New Democratic Social democracy
Democratic socialism
Centre-left to left-wing Jagmeet Singh
15.98%
24 / 338
24 / 338
Green Green politics Annamie Paul
6.55%
3 / 338
2 / 338
Independents N/A
0.40%
1 / 338
5 / 338
Vacant seats N/A
0 / 338
1 / 338

Incumbents not running for reelection

The following MPs have announced that they would not be running in the 2021 federal election:

Member of Parliament Electoral district Province or territory Date announced
  Will Amos[14] Pontiac Quebec August 8, 2021
  Larry Bagnell[15] Yukon Yukon August 5, 2021
  Navdeep Bains[16] Mississauga—Malton Ontario January 12, 2021
  Lyne Bessette[17] Brome—Missisquoi Quebec July 16, 2021
  Bob Bratina[18] Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Ontario May 17, 2021
  Wayne Easter[19] Malpeque Prince Edward Island June 14, 2021
  Pat Finnigan[20] Miramichi—Grand Lake New Brunswick June 14, 2021
  Paul Lefebvre[21] Sudbury Ontario March 12, 2021
  Karen McCrimmon[22] Kanata—Carleton Ontario August 8, 2021
  Catherine McKenna[23] Ottawa Centre Ontario June 27, 2021
  Geoff Regan[24] Halifax West Nova Scotia March 31, 2021
  Gagan Sikand[25] Mississauga—Streetsville Ontario August 15, 2021
  Adam Vaughan[26] Spadina—Fort York Ontario August 8, 2021
  Kate Young[27] London West Ontario March 18, 2021
  Steven Blaney[28] Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis Quebec July 14, 2021
  Peter Kent[29][30] Thornhill Ontario November 19, 2020
  Tom Lukiwski[31][32] Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan Saskatchewan May 26, 2021
  Phil McColeman[33][34] Brantford—Brant Ontario December 30, 2020
  Cathy McLeod[35][36] Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo British Columbia February 4, 2021
  Bruce Stanton[37] Simcoe North Ontario June 25, 2020
  David Sweet[38] Flamborough—Glanbrook Ontario January 4, 2021
  David Yurdiga[39] Fort McMurray—Cold Lake Alberta August 14, 2021
  Louise Charbonneau[40] Trois-Rivières Quebec January 14, 2021
  Simon Marcil[40] Mirabel Quebec January 14, 2021
  Scott Duvall[41][42] Hamilton Mountain Ontario March 5, 2021
  Jack Harris[43][44] St. John's East Newfoundland and Labrador June 11, 2021
  Mumilaaq Qaqqaq[45] Nunavut Nunavut May 20, 2021
  Jody Wilson-Raybould[46] Vancouver Granville British Columbia July 8, 2021

The following MPs have not been renominated by their parties:

Member of Parliament Electoral district Province or territory Date announced
  Michel Boudrias[47] Terrebonne Quebec August 4, 2021

Timeline

Changes in seats held (2020–21)

2019

  • October 21, 2019: In the 43rd Canadian federal election, the incumbent Liberal Party lost its majority but won the most seats in the House of Commons.
  • October 23, 2019: The Liberals ruled out any "formal or informal" coalition government with any other party.[58]
  • October 29, 2019: Incumbent prime minister Justin Trudeau met with Governor General Julie Payette to officially confirm that he intended to form a government.[59]
  • October 30, 2019: Green Party leader Elizabeth May, MP for Saanich—Gulf Islands, announced her interest in running for Speaker of the House of Commons, a position that would necessitate stepping down from her position as party leader.[60]
  • November 3, 2019: The Liberals announced that Trudeau would meet with opposition leaders during the week of November 11 to see if any common ground existed.[61]
  • November 4, 2019: Elizabeth May resigned as leader of the Green Party effective immediately and ruled out a bid for Speaker. May announced that she will remain an MP and named deputy Green Party leader Jo-Ann Roberts as the party's interim leader until her successor is chosen.[62][7]
  • November 6, 2019: The Conservative caucus voted against using a section of federal law that would have given them the authority to remove Andrew Scheer as party leader.[9]
  • November 18, 2019: Maxime Bernier announced that he will stay on as leader of the People's Party and that he will run again in the 44th Canadian federal election, or before then, if there is a by-election.[63]
  • November 20, 2019: The new Cabinet was sworn in.[58]
  • December 5, 2019: The 43rd Parliament was convened. Anthony Rota was elected as the new Speaker of the House and the Throne Speech was read.[64]
  • December 12, 2019: Andrew Scheer announces his intention to resign as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada.[10]

2020

  • June 6, 2020: Kitchener South—Hespeler MP Marwan Tabbara resigned from the Liberal caucus after being charged with assault, breaking and entering, and criminal harassment.[48][65]
  • August 17, 2020: Liberal Finance Minister Bill Morneau resigned from cabinet and as the MP for Toronto Centre, amid controversy relating to the WE scandal. He plans to bid for the Secretary-General of OECD.[49]
  • August 18, 2020: Prime Minister Trudeau prorogues Parliament until September 23.[66][67]
  • August 23–24, 2020: The Conservative Party held a leadership election to replace Andrew Scheer. The original date of June 27 was postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic.[68] Erin O'Toole was elected as the new Conservative leader.[69]
  • September 1, 2020: Liberal Michael Levitt resigned as MP for York Centre to become the President and CEO of the Canadian Friends of Simon Wiesenthal Centre for Holocaust Studies, triggering a by-election in the riding.[50]
  • September 23, 2020: Parliament came back into session. Speech from the Throne.
  • October 3, 2020: Annamie Paul wins the 2020 Green Party leadership election to replace Elizabeth May.[7][70]
  • October 26, 2020: By-elections were held in the ridings of Toronto Centre and York Centre, electing Liberal Marci Ien and Liberal Ya'ara Saks, respectively.[71]
  • November 9, 2020: Don Valley East MP Yasmin Ratansi resigned from the Liberal caucus after a CBC News investigation revealed she had violated parliamentary rules on nepotism.[51]

2021

  • January 12, 2021: Mississauga—Malton MP Navdeep Bains, the Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry, resigned from the cabinet.[72] A larger cabinet reshuffle took place.[73][74]
  • January 20, 2021: Hastings—Lennox and Addington MP Derek Sloan was expelled from the Conservative caucus after accepting a donation from white supremacist Paul Fromm.[52][53] Sloan claimed ignorance of the source as Fromm, who goes by his middle name, donated using only his first given name and initial.
  • January 25, 2021: Brampton Centre MP Ramesh Sangha was removed from the Liberal caucus for spreading claims against multiple other Liberal MPs that they were harbouring support for the Khalistan movement.[54][55]
  • May 11, 2021: Haldimand—Norfolk MP Diane Finley resigned her seat.[56] Finley had already announced in August 2020 that she would not run in the next election.[75]
  • May 15, 2021: Members of Parliament agree election should not be called amid the COVID-19 pandemic.[76]
  • June 10, 2021: Fredericton MP Jenica Atwin left the Green caucus and joined the Liberals, citing party infighting over the Israeli–Palestinian conflict.[77]
  • August 15, 2021: Parliament is dissolved and writs of election are dropped.[78]
  • September 2, 2021: 1st French language leaders' debate, organized by TVA Nouvelles.
  • September 8, 2021: 2nd French language leaders' debate, organized by the Leaders' Debate Commission.
  • September 9, 2021: English language leaders' debate, organized by the Leaders' Debate Commission.
  • September 10–13, 2021: Advance polling.
  • September 14, 2021: Last day to apply online for mail-in voting. Last day to vote by Special Ballot at a Returning Office.
  • September 20, 2021: Election Day.

Endorsements

Endorsements received by each party
Type Liberal Conservative NDP Bloc Québécois Green No endorsement
Media
Politicians and public figures Andrew Weaver
Barack Obama
[79][80] François Legault [81] Cindy Blackstock [82]
Unions and business associations United Steelworkers [83]

Campaign

Campaign slogans

Party English French Translation of French (unofficial)
Liberal Party of Canada "Forward. For Everyone."[84] "Avançons ensemble." "Let's move forward together."
Conservative Party of Canada "Secure the Future"[85] "Agir pour l'avenir." "Act for the Future."
New Democratic Party "Fighting for You"[86] "Oser ensemble" "Dare Together"
Bloc Québécois
N/A
"Québécois" "Quebecers"
Green Party of Canada "Be Daring."[87] "Faites le saut." "Take the Leap."

Policy platforms

Party Full platform PDF Ref
Liberal Party of Canada Forward. For Everyone. [88]
Conservative Party of Canada Canada's Recovery Plan [89]
New Democratic Party Ready for Better [90]
Bloc Québécois Québécois [91]
Green Party of Canada Platform 21. Be Daring. [92]

Leaders' debates

In June 2020, the Leaders' Debates Commission released its report reviewing the 2019 election debates and making recommendations for future debates.[93][94] The report recommended a permanent and publicly funded commission be tasked with organizing two debates every future election. It also called for the commission, not the government, to set the criteria for participation in future election debates.[93][94] Below are the scheduled debates:

2021 Canadian general election debates
Date Organizers Location Language Moderator  P  Participant  A  Absent (invited)  I  Invited  N  Not invited Source
Trudeau O'Toole Blanchet Singh Paul
September 2, 2021 TVA Nouvelles Montreal French Pierre Bruneau P P P P N [95][96]
September 8, 2021 Leaders' Debates Commission Canadian Museum of History, Gatineau French Patrice Roy P P P P P [97][98]
September 9, 2021 English Shachi Kurl P P P P P [97][98]

Results

Map showing boundaries of the 338 federal ridings to be contested
Liberal Conservative Bloc Québécois New Democratic Green
Summary of the 2021 Canadian federal election
Party Party leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
2019 Dissol. 2021 Change
from 2019
% seats Votes Vote
change
% pp change % where
running
Liberal Justin Trudeau 338[b] 157 155
Conservative Erin O'Toole 337[c] 121 119
Bloc Québécois Yves-François Blanchet 78 32 32
New Democratic Jagmeet Singh 338[d] 24 24
Green Annamie Paul 252 3 2
  Independent or No Affiliation 91 1 5
People's Maxime Bernier 312
Michel Leclerc 59
Marxist–Leninist Anna Di Carlo 36
Maverick Jay D. Hill (interim) 29
Rhinoceros Sébastien CoRhino 27
Communist Elizabeth Rowley 26
Christian Heritage Rodney L. Taylor 25
Libertarian Jacques Boudreau 13
Animal Protection Liz White 10
Parti pour l'Indépendance du Québec Michel Blondin 10
Marijuana Blair T. Longley 9
Randy David Joy 7
Centrist A.Q. Rana 4
National Citizens Alliance Stephen J. Garvey 4
Canada's Fourth Front Partap Dua 2
Parti Patriote Carl Brochu 2
Canadian Nationalist Gus Stefanis 1
  Vacant 1
Total valid votes
Total rejected ballots
Total 2,010 338 338 338 100.00 100.00 100.00
Electorate/turnout
Source: [103]

Candidates

Opinion polls

Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the campaign period of the 2021 Canadian federal election. Trendlines are 25-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.
Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 2021 Canadian federal election. Trendlines are 30-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.

Notes

  1. ^ Though parties registered with Elections Canada can field candidates in any riding they wish, the Bloc Québécois has never fielded candidates outside of Quebec (78 seats). Thus they currently cannot gain a majority in parliament.
  2. ^ Includes Kitchener Centre candidate Raj Saini, who withdrew after the deadline for candidate registration and thus remained on the ballot as a Liberal.[99]
  3. ^ Includes Beaches—East York candidate Lisa Robinson, who was removed as a candidate after the deadline for candidate registration and thus remained on the ballot as a Conservative.[100] The Conservatives did not run a candidate in Dartmouth—Cole Harbour after their nominee withdrew shortly before the registration deadline.[101]
  4. ^ Includes Toronto—St. Paul's candidate Sidney Coles and Cumberland—Colchester candidate Daniel Osborne, who both withdrew after the deadline for candidate registration and thus remained on the ballot as New Democrats.[102]

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